The fine folks at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board have released their 2026 Q1 report on the rental market.  The report focuses on condominium rental units, both condo apartments as well as townhouses, in Toronto, York, Peel, Halton, Durham, Dufferin and Simcoe.

Here’s a link to the full report if you want to check it out.

As always, we reviewed the data to see what’s worth noting.  Let’s get into it!

More…but also less.

The report shows that across the TRREB boundaries (the GTA and a bit beyond) apartment rentals rose about 11% year-over-year, from 14,800 leases in Q1 2025 to 16,400 in Q1 2026. In the same periods, listings rose 6%, from 22,600 to 24,000, so supply remained heavy enough to preserve renter choice and negotiating power.

Put another way, more places were rented in this first quarter of 2026 than in the first quarter of 2025, but we also saw a somewhat smaller increase in the number of places for rent.  If you combine those two things – an increase in demand, with a smaller increase in supply – you’d naturally assume that rental prices would be going up.

Instead, rents fell across every apartment bedroom type, which is a bit of a head scratcher.  Average apartment rents were lower year-over-year for bachelors, one-bedrooms, two-bedrooms, and three-bedrooms. The biggest winner (for tenants) is the one-bedroom average rent, which fell 4.1% to $2,246 from $2,343. That’s about $100 less per month that landlords of these units are receiving in rent.

Two-bedrooms fell 3.2% to $2,939, and three-bedrooms fell 2.7% to $3,757, so it seems like the bigger, higher priced rental units did better than the smaller, cheaper places.  This is likely due to the level of supply, as while demand for family-size units has only increased over the last number of years, developers have focused on the smaller, single person or couple occupancy units.

Renting out a place?  You’re probably in Toronto.

Another interesting aspect of the report is that Toronto still dominated apartment leasing volume.  Out of 16,365 apartment leases across all TRREB areas, the City of Toronto accounted for 11,411, or roughly 70% of total apartment rental transactions. Toronto Central alone had 8,783 leases, making it the core of the rental market with more than half of rentals taking place there.

York Region had meaningful apartment volume, but at lower average rents than Toronto.  York Region had 1,908 apartment leases in Q1 2026. Its average one-bedroom rent was $2,165, compared with $2,322 in Toronto Central. Two-bedrooms averaged $2,732 in York Region, compared with $3,186 in Toronto Central.

While York is often the home of the highest average priced property in the GTA (trading places with Halton on some months), the average price for a condo unit in York is comparable to the average in Toronto, so while landlords in York are getting lower rent, they also paid less for their units.

Ready to rent?  Consider a townhouse.

The final odd aspect that we found in the report was in the rental townhouse portion of the market.  While the level of activity was pretty stable when compared year over year, the average rent dropped considerably.

When we compare Q1 of this year to Q1 of 2025, townhouse leases were nearly flat, rising 1.7% year-over-year from 1,156 to 1,176. In the same time comparison, average townhouse rents fell overall, with three-bedroom townhouse rents down 7.5% year-over-year. This is contrary to the condo apartment segment of the rental market, which as we mentioned, had larger three-bedroom units see the smallest average drop in rental prices of all the types of condo units.

Our take on this is that tenants who were renting out townhouses were most likely to have seen the comparable cost of owning a place equalize over the past year.  As purchase prices dropped in many segments of the markets across the GTA, a tenant who was already paying considerable money to rent a townhouse began to see prices that would carry for similar numbers to their current rent.  It seems that townhouse landlords had to make their rental rates more attractive to continue to appeal to tenants for their property who might otherwise look to jump into the property market themselves.

Every segment of the market – whether it is rental or for sale, condo or freehold, entry level or high end – has its own trends, rhythms and cycles.  If you’re thinking about buying or selling, renting or renting out, then you need to work with agents who understand the market you’re focused upon.  Get in touch with us to hear our thoughts on how to best move you forward!

One of the few constants in real estate recently has been the low levels of buyers, at least compared to the available number of properties.

The number of sales in Toronto that took place in 2025 was down about 8% from the level of transactions in 2024, which itself was lower than 2023 and so forth.

If we look at the level of sales that took place in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, it’s down about 9% compared to the same time period a year ago (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025), so things are not getting better.

There’s a saying in real estate, which is “Sellers live in the past, buyers live in the future” and that seems to very much be the case now. We have sellers who are stubbornly holding onto what their home used to be worth and we have buyers who are shaking their heads and refusing to pay what the home is worth now, in the fear that the market will keep dropping.

What makes buyers hold off on making a purchase? That’s a complicated question, but there are three big factors that impact buying decisions on a macro level. Let’s get into them.

Numero Uno – The Cost of Borrowing

Only about 10% to 15% of purchasers in the GTA do so without borrowing money in the form of a mortgage. As such, the interest rates that are charged have a big impact on the carrying cost of the property.

Borrowers have the choice between a variable rate mortgage or a fixed rate mortgage and which is most popular does shift based on the perceived risk of rate changes over time, as well as how that risk is factored into the rates being offered by lenders.

In general, if there is uncertainty, borrowers tend to favour fixed rates, so they know how much it will cost them over the length of the term of their mortgage. As such, in the past year, we’ve seen more people shifting to fixed rate mortgages, as reported by CMHC in the 2025 Year-In-Review report. Variable mortgages likely make up about 40% of the pool of borrowers, with the remainder in fixed rate mortgages.

The variable rate that banks offer is directly impacted by the overnight rate charged by the Bank of Canada, which is effectively the rate as which banks can borrow from the BOC. In addition to the variable mortgage rate banks offer, the overnight rate also directly impacts HELOCs and other variable lending that uses the bank prime interest rate to determine the rate charged.

As we write this article in May, 2026, it has now been close to two years since the Bank of Canada started dropping the overnight rate. In July 2023, the rate was set at 5% and until June 2024, it remained there. From June 2024 onward until October 2025, we saw a cutting cycle, where rates dropped down from 5% to 2.25%.

Since October 2025, we’ve remained at that same 2.25% level. Our latest BOC of announcement on April 29, 2026 saw the overnight rate stay at 2.25%, which means it is the 4th announcement in a row with no change to the rate. Put another way, it’s been six months of no change to the cost of borrowing, at least on the variable interest rate side of the mortgage equation.

If we look at fixed mortgage rates over the last six months, the average 5 year fixed posted mortgage rate has also remained unchanged. These rates are impacted by bond yield and lender pricing, not the overnight rate. While there are lots of different terms for fixed mortgages, the 5 year term remains very common, and the posted mortgage rate for that term has stayed constant at 6.09% since October, 2025.

The posted mortgage rate is different than the discounted rate that lenders actually offer, currently around 3.69% to 4.09%, but in general fixed mortgage rates have remained relatively unchanged, just like the variable rate.

To summarize, the cost of borrowing in the last six months has basically remained the same, and the next couple of months will likely see that continue.

On the variable rate side, the BOC announcement a couple of days ago that kept the overnight rate at the same 2.25% we’ve had over the past six months means variable rates will not move over the next six to eight weeks. For fixed rate mortgages, the forecast for bond yields is mostly flat, with perhaps a slight increase, so those mortgages will also likely not change much through May and June.

If the cost of borrowing has been steady for the past six months, with it likely to remain unchanged for the next couple of months, then why are buyers holding off?

Factor Number Two – Prices

If we’re clear that buyers are not holding off on their purchase decision because it’s getting more expensive to finance homes, or because they are worried it will get more expensive shortly, is it because of the price of real estate?

While no one would argue that our real estate is inexpensive, it’s been costly for a long time now. Perhaps it’s because prices are rising, so despite the same interest rates for mortgages, the size of the mortgage – and the cost to carry it – are preventing buyers from jumping into the market.

Here’s the average price for real estate in Toronto from October 2025 to March 2026. We don’t have the April data yet, but it hasn’t skyrocketed.

You can see that in the six months of data here, the average price dropped in November, December, January and March, with an increase in February. In October 2025, the average price in the city was $1.076M, and as of the end of March 2026, it was $1.02M. That’s about a $56,000 drop, so on average, it actually costs less to buy now than it did six months ago. With borrowing costs remaining the same, the cost of your mortgage payment is down on average, because you have a lower mortgage due to the lower purchase price.

If buyers were holding off because they saw the market crashing, with lower prices every month, it would make sense. After all, no one wants to purchase an asset that is worth less and less as time goes on. The past six months saw a typical seasonal change, with the holidays and dead of winter seeing lower average prices before a slight, but temporary bump as we headed into spring. The drop from October to March of $56K is about a 5% difference from high to low, and that’s a far cry from a market crash.

Here’s a chart that shows the average price in Toronto for all of 2024, 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. A lot of fluctuations, but absolutely not a crashing market. In fact, if we compare the price at the end of March 2026, which was $1.02M, with the price at the start of January 2024, which was $952K, Toronto’s market has risen 7% in the past two years and a bit.

If you’re looking at the chart and you’ve been waiting for a significant drop in average prices so you can buy, you’ll view it as a reason to keep waiting. In the same vein, if you’re hoping to buy real estate to see it increase in value significantly over time, the chart says there is no rush for you to jump into the market. Both of those interpretations speak to the public perception of the real estate market, which is the third factor influencing buyer decisions.

Point The Third – Perception

If the cost of borrowing has remained unchanged in the past six months, and the cost of real estate has dropped by over $50K on average – but with no consistent trend or market crash – why are buyers waiting?

Our answer is that the perception of the value of owning real estate in Toronto and the GTA has fundamentally shifted in last five years. Prior to COVID and the turmoil of our recent economic, military and climate challenges, the way we viewed real estate was significantly different than it is now.

After years of consistent price appreciation in the 2000s and beyond, there was a perception amongst the general public that real estate always goes up. With such a belief in place, as well as historically low interest rates and a healthy economy, buyers seized the opportunity to make a purchase.

If the general consensus was real estate always goes up, the rude awakening of the past couple of years has resulted in a new, equally inaccurate consensus, which is that real estate is never going to go up again. There are some people who believe Toronto and GTA real estate markets will experience a significant crash in the near future, but that has always been the case. The more impactful shift in belief that is impacting our level of sales is that a significant amount of people believe that real estate won’t ever go up in value.

The effect of this belief is a lack of urgency, as there is no rush to buy a property when prices will be the same – or perhaps even lower – in a week, a month, or a year from now. In a way, the lack of change in the cost of borrowing reinforces this belief, as it definitely isn’t getting more expensive to finance your purchase. With no absolute end in sight to the current level of interest rates being offered, it is like a sale at a store that seems to be perpetual. If you can’t get to the store this week, or next week, don’t stress about it because the same sale prices will be there whenever you get around to it.

Perception does shift over time and in many ways it is the most impactful of the three factors that influence when a buyer decides to make a move. The cost of borrowing and the price of real estate influence that perception, but if we’re experiencing a time of scarcity and economic uncertainty, buyers are fearful of making a move at the wrong time.

As long as we have significant uncertainty about what is coming next, how our economy will fare and whether our jobs are secure, major decisions will be difficult to make. Given the still lofty heights of the price of real estate in Toronto and the GTA, that means buyers will remain on the fence until a clear picture of what’s coming next is revealed.

The people who are buying and selling in these uncertain times are doing so because they have to make a move, not because the timing is ideal. If you are one of those people, who don’t have the luxury of waiting until you know for sure what’s coming next, then you need a real estate agent who understands the market and how to get you the best possible result. Get in touch with us to talk about the next steps!

We’re starting to see some bidding wars and homes selling over list price in certain areas we’re working in with clients, and we thought it was worth examining how common that is these days.

We pulled the data for freehold properties in Toronto, York, Peel, Durham, Halton, Dufferin and Simcoe to see exactly where these three day markets exist and to what extent.  Let’s get into it.

Toronto – Home of the 11%

When we look at the City of Toronto, it is by far the place where the three day market is most prevalent.

As of April 17, 2026, there have been 2,465 sales in Toronto so far this year.  276 of these sales happened in three days or less, which means that 11% of the Toronto market transacted that quickly.  The homes are generally three bedroom, three washroom houses.

The average sale to list price for these 276 homes was 106%, so these sellers received, on average, about $76,000 more than their list price.  Whether this was a result of the sellers holding back offers until a certain date and then receiving a bully offer they accepted, or simply a quick acting buyer who offered more than list price shortly after listing, Toronto was one of two parts of the GTA where these quick sales also netted sellers more than list price.

Durham – 2^nd Place Ain’t Bad

The only other part of the GTA that saw an average sale to list price of over 100% was Durham.

As of April 17, 2026, Durham has had 1,608 sales in the region so far, and 106 of those sales happened in three days or less on market.  This means about 7% of all of the sales in 2026 in Durham happened on a very quick basis, and the average sale to list price was about 102%.

With an average list price in Durham of about $910,000 for these quick sales, it means that these sellers not only sold quickly, they made about $14K more than their list price.  Just like Toronto, these homes had three bedrooms and three washrooms, which means they’re quite suitable for a family.

York – Close, but No Cigar

While all five of the remaining areas with the GTA saw a number of these quick sales, none of them had a sale to list price ratio of over 100%.  York came closest to the mark of these five, with a sale to list price ratio of just under 100%.

There were 1,917 sales in York Region in 2026 as of April 17, 2026, and about 5% of these sales happened in three days or less.  These 96 homes sold for, on average, about $6,000 less than their list price, so while they sold quickly, it wasn’t the same sort of market where sellers got more in a very quick fashion.  They were slightly larger homes than we saw in Toronto and Durham, with four bedrooms and four washrooms on average.

Peel – 92 sales and 95% over Three Days

As of April 17, 2026, Peel has seen 1,883 sales this year and just 92 of those sales took place in three days or less.  That works out to about 5% of the total sales, and on average, the sellers of these four bedroom, three washroom homes got about $10K less than their list price.  With 95% of properties selling over that three day window, the Peel market was definitely not the hottest in the GTA.

Halton – 1% Under List Price

Halton is our first part of the GTA to see a list to sale price ratio of 99%, which worked out to sellers taking about $11K less than the list price.  As of April 17, 2026, Halton has seen 1,187 sales and just 71 of those of those homes sold in three days or less.  That means that just 6% of the properties sold so far this year (which were three bedroom, three washroom homes on average) sold in a very speedy fashion.

Simcoe – The Second Smallest Level of Sales and the Smallest Homes

Simcoe has had 1,475 sales in 2026 as of April 17, 2026, with just 3% of those sales taking place in three days or less.  These 40 homes were also the smallest homes to sell in that timeframe in all of the GTA, with an average size of three bedrooms and two washrooms.  They sold for about $8K less than list price, but with the lowest average sale price in the GTA, that number below list isn’t too surprising.

Dufferin – Just Three Houses Sold in Under Three Days

Our final area to review is Dufferin, which saw just three of the 148 sales so far this year (as of April 17, 2026) sell in under three days.  That works out to 2% of the total sales and while the sale to list price ration was 96%, with just three sales, that number isn’t reliable.  Similarly, the $27K under list price that these sellers took in order to sell so quickly seems reflective more of buyers pushing hard, rather than a hot market.

Nobody buys or sells the market as a whole.  Whether you’re looking to purchase a property or sell one – or both – you’re always dealing with a specific housing type, area and price point.  While what is happening in “the” market can be interesting, it is often not the same as what is happening in any of these sub-markets.  We hope you found this review helpful, and that seeing which parts of the GTA have been seeing some quick sales – and the impact that has had on the prices for these sales – gave you a better understanding of the differing markets we’re seeing.

If you are thinking about making a move, then you need to know what’s happening in your market, not the market.  Get in touch with us and we’ll show you exactly what is happening where you live and where you want to live.

In both good and bad markets, there is some simple math that determines how well the seller did on the sale of the property.

If you sold it for more than what you bought it for, you did well.  If you had to take less than what you paid for it, you didn’t.  You can add in the transaction costs of buying and selling if you like, but at the end of the day, it boils down to how much you bought it for and your eventual sale price.

There is saying in real estate, which is that you make money when you buy, not when you sell.  The meaning behind it is as simple as the math above.  If you over pay for a property relative to the sale price of it over the course of your ownership, then you can’t make money.

The corollary to this adage is that buying at the height of a market is bad, particularly if you end up needing to sell during the low point of another market.  If that sounds as simplistic as what we’re describing above, you’re absolutely right.  There is some good news however, which is that it is easy to know if you’re at the current height or the current bottom of a market.

The real estate industry produces a staggering amount of statistics and while some are nuanced, the way to tell where a market is at any given point is simply the level of sales and the current average price.  If the current price is the highest in a number of years (or ever!) then you’re buying at the current height of the market.  Even in markets where prices rise consistently over the course of a year, there are variations each month in average price and it never goes up or down every month for extended periods.

Consider Toronto, where in the last 15 years, the average price has risen in 47% of the months and dropped in 53% of the months.  If you choose to buy after four or five months of rising prices, then you’ll need to make sure that you sell when prices have also been rising for a while.

The media has been full of stories in the past year about people losing tremendous amounts of money when they sell a property.  This is a very clear case of people who bought at the height of one market and are selling at a low point of another market.

It does not, however, mean that everyone will lose money on the sale of their property.  We recently helped a client sell a condo and while she was quite apprehensive about the price we could get her for it, she still made close to $200,000 profit on the sale after expenses.  She had owned it for a length of time and while condo prices have certainly dropped in the past couple of years, they are still not down to what you would have paid for one back in 2016.

We did the analysis on Toronto and the six other regions that TRREB operates within in order to say when your best and worst time to have bought was in the last 16 years.  Let’s get to it!

Toronto

In January, 2026, Toronto’s average sale price was $954,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Toronto was in April, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,249,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the city in the past 16 years, which took place in August, 2010, when a property cost about $417,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 67th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $295,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in April, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 127th lowest average price in Toronto in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $537,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in August, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Toronto in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $955,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in April, 2022, when properties in the city cost about $1,249,000. That’s approximately $294,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Toronto compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2021, when the average price was $877,000. Our current average price puts us about $78,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Toronto if you were thinking about selling now?   

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $955,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,230,000 → $275,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,146,000 → $191,000 above current prices
3. Spring 2025 (Mar–May 2025): Avg $1,131,000 → $177,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,126,000 → $171,000 above current prices
5. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,116,000 → $161,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Peel

In January, 2026, Peel’s average sale price was $911,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Peel was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,349,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2011, when a property cost about $370,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $438,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Peel in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $541,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2011.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Peel in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $911,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,349,000. That’s approximately $438,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Peel compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $792,000. Our current average price puts us about $119,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Peel if you were thinking about selling now?   

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $911,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,226,000 → $315,000 above current prices
2. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,225,000 → $314,000 above current prices
3. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,105,000 → $194,000 above current prices
4. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,096,000 → $185,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,090,000 → $178,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

York

In January, 2026, York’s average sale price was $1,094,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in York was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,556,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $465,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 65th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $462,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 129th lowest average price in York in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $628,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in York in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,094,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,557,000. That’s approximately $463,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in York compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $918,000. Our current average price puts us about $176,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in York if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,094,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,500,000 → $406,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,417,000 → $323,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,381,000 → $287,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,358,000 → $264,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,350,000 → $256,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Halton

In January, 2026, Halton’s average sale price was $1,137,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Halton was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,536,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in July, 2010, when a property cost about $443,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 57th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $399,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 137th lowest average price in Halton in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $694,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in July, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Halton in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,137,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,536,000. That’s approximately $399,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Halton compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $856,000. Our current average price puts us about $281,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Halton if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,137,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,445,000 → $308,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,405,000 → $267,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,312,000 → $175,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,269,000 → $131,000 above current prices
5. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,268,000 → $130,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Durham

In January, 2026, Durham’s average sale price was $821,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Durham was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,231,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in February, 2010, when a property cost about $289,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $409,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Durham in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $533,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in February, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Durham in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $822,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,231,000. That’s approximately $409,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Durham compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $620,000. Our current average price puts us about $202,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Durham if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $822,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,141,000 → $319,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,071,000 → $249,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $987,000 → $165,000 above current prices
4. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $962,000 → $140,000 above current prices
5. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $959,000 → $137,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Dufferin

In January, 2026, Dufferin’s average sale price was $944,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Dufferin was in January, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,228,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $276,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 35th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $284,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in January, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 159th lowest average price in Dufferin in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $668,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Dufferin in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $945,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in January, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,229,000. That’s approximately $284,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Dufferin compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $595,000. Our current average price puts us about $350,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Dufferin if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $945,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,157,000 → $212,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,067,000 → $122,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,043,000 → $98,000 above current prices
4. Fall 2023 (Sep–Nov 2023): Avg $984,000 → $39,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2022 (Jun–Aug 2022): Avg $969,000 → $24,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Simcoe

In January, 2026, Simcoe’s average sale price was $736,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Simcoe was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,033,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in October, 2010, when a property cost about $257,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 60th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $297,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 134th lowest average price in Simcoe in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $479,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in October, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Simcoe in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $736,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,034,000. That’s approximately $298,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Simcoe compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $532,000. Our current average price puts us about $204,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Simcoe if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $736,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2025 (Dec 2024–Feb 2025): Avg $817,000 → $81,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $839,000 → $103,000 above current prices
3. Summer 2024 (Jun–Aug 2024): Avg $821,000 → $85,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $991,000 → $255,000 above current prices
5. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $975,000 → $239,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

While media stories paint all parts of Toronto and the GTA with the same brush, the truth is that each of these real estate markets has different patterns.  We work with clients in all of them and our analytical approach is part of what allows us to offer guidance on the timing to both buy and sell.

If you are thinking about buying this year, there is lots of evidence that you are buying at a considerable low point in the current market.  If you’re planning on selling, then when you bought and what is happening in your neighbourhood or building is crucial to your plans.  Get in touch with us to help figure out the best path forward!

When people talk about a real estate spring market, they’re referring to a perceived period of higher sales and greater activity in the market after the slower winter period.

In a general sense, we would agree that spring markets still take place each year, but only in the sense that the dead of winter is always the slowest time of year for real estate sales and any other time of year is busier in comparison.

Many sellers and buyers plan their next move around a perceived busy period, either the spring market or the fall market.  While such markets may have existed in the past, we’ve seen increasingly untethered markets over the last number of years.  We’ve previously written about fall markets but given that many of our buyer and seller clients are anxiously asking us about the spring market in 2026, we thought it was time to look at the data to see if we’ll actually see a spring market this year.

For our analysis we looked at the Toronto data going back 15 years to 2010.  We focused on what took place in February, March, April and May so that we could talk specifically about what “normally” happens and what we’re predicting will take place this year.  Let’s get into it.

February – So it begins!

When we look at the data, across all 15 years (2011–2025), February is higher than January for:

• Sales: 15/15 years up
• New listings: 15/15 years up
• Average price: 15/15 years up

We typically see around 2,500 sales in February, compared to about 1,700 sales in the city in January.  That’s about 40% higher than January, so absolutely a strong month over month increase in sales.  New listings typically go up about 21% in February, with median numbers of new listings being around 4,600.  Prices also start to rise in February, typically going up about 12% from the January average price.

While February is consistently a better month for sales, new listings and average prices, that’s because January is almost always the lowest month of the year for sales and new listings, and sometimes the lowest price of the year.  Is February the start of the spring market then?  Hold your horses.

March – More sales, more new listings, lower average price?

When we look at the last 15 years, March has consistently been busier than February in terms of number of sales and new listings, but not in higher average price.

• Sales: 15/15 years up
• New listings: 15/15 years up
• Average price: 6/15 years up

March sees about a 37% increase in sales compared to February, and about a 30% bump in number of new listings, so March is definitely more active than February.

On the average price side of things, March typically sees a drop of about 1% in average price compared to February.  Remember that prices from January to February typically increase by about 12%, which is a significant month over month change.  You could view the slight price drop that occurs in March as a bit of a market pause, as it adjusts to the new average price.  If that logic makes sense to us, then it is largely a function of how much of a price bump we saw in the February of a given year.  All told, March saw higher prices than February in six of the last 15 years, so about a one in three chance you’ll see that happen in any given year.  If this doesn’t sound exactly like a description of a hot spring market, let’s see what April brings.

April – Prices go up (likely), new listings go up (probably) and sales go up (maybe)

The stats for April show a somewhat variable but mostly positive picture when it comes to what typically takes place in the fourth month of the year.

• Sales: 10/15 years up
• New listings: 12/15 years up
• Average price: 13/15 years up

Starting with average price, April has seen a higher average price than March in 13 of the last 15 years, typically to the tune of about 5% higher.  It is possible that we don’t see an April increase compared to March, but most of the time, prices do go up in April.

On the new listings side of things, we have more new listings in Toronto in April than March in 12 of the last 15 years.  That means if you’re looking to buy, you can probably count on seeing about 10% more options for you in April, compared to what came on the market in March.

For our level of sales, April sees about a 10% increase in sales numbers, but that has only happened 10 out of the last 15 years.  Given more sales happen about two-thirds of the time, you can probably count on it happening, but don’t bet the farm on it.

Put it all together and April is the month that most fits the description of a spring market.  Most of the time it’s busier and sees higher average prices than previous months, which is what most people associate with the spring market.  Not all hope is lost if you’re not doing a deal by April though, as May isn’t typically too different.

May – It’s still spring, right?

The story for May continues to be somewhat inconsistent compared to previous months.

• Sales: 12/15 years up
• New listings: 14/15 years up
• Average price: 11/15 years up

Sales have continued to rise in 12 out of the last 15 months and the average price has gone up in May (compared to April) in 11 out of the last 15 months.  Interestingly enough, lots of sellers are latecomers to the spring market, with the number of new listings going up in 14 out of the past 15 years.

In terms of percentages, when May is up compared to April, it isn’t by a lot.  The median increase in average price is less than 2% and the number of sales is up by about 7%.  While the number of new listings is almost up compared to April, it only goes up by about 11%, which isn’t a strong increase compared to the start of the year with February and March jumps in new listing levels.

While April is most commonly the best month of the spring in terms of collective increases in sales, new listings and average price, May isn’t far behind and you might consider the spring market to typically take place in April and May, rather than in just one month.

What’s it all mean?

We did promise an answer to whether we’d see a spring market this year, so here it is.

Yes, but only compared to our low and slow numbers in the last few months.

We ended 2025 with December showing the lowest average price of the year in Toronto at about $970,000.  As such, any “typical” price appreciation in the spring of 2026 will be using a lower number as the starting point.  Similarly, our slow market in terms of sales means that while we’ll likely see an increase in February and onward, we’re not hitting it out of the park by any means.

There’s a lot of “this happens sometimes” and numbers and percentages above, so let’s finish with some key-take aways from this review that we think will hold true for 2026.

• January is a bad month (on average) for sellers to sell. With the lowest average price (for at least the first half of the year), sellers who can wait until at least February will, on average, get significantly more for their home.
• If you’re buying, March is likely the best time in the Spring to do so. February seems to be with eager beavers fighting over new listings and pushing up prices, while March sees a surge in new listings and sales, with a corresponding slow down in price appreciation.
• April is when sellers seem to get the best average sale price, with about 16% higher average sale prices in April compared to January.

There are always variables that impact what takes place in any given year, but with 15 years of data reviewed, the above is a good starting point if you plan on buying or selling in 2026.

If you’re interested in us doing the above analysis of the data for your specific market, housing type or price point, then get in touch with us.  While what’s happening in the market on average is useful to know, you’re not buying or selling the market – you’re buying or selling one specific property in one specific area.  Let’s make sure you time that transaction right!

When we were starting our review of the latest batch of market stats from the good folks at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), something immediately stood out, namely the level of active listings in Toronto and the closest regions to Toronto.

In Toronto, Halton, Peel and York, we started May with the highest ever level of active listings (properties for sale) on the market. Durham was just 30 listings shy of their all time record high, so we’ll include the Durham region as well.

With more properties for sale than ever before, it’s worth doing a dive into how this happened and specifically what types of properties are for sale now, and at what price points?

Let’s get into it.

How’d this happen?

We’re going to answer the question of how did this happen from a technical standpoint, rather than a philosophical one! There are many factors influencing why the year so far has played out this way, but the below chart is a very clear explanation as to how we ended up with this record level of active listings in the city.

Let’s work our way across.

The first blue column is the number of active listings as of the end of December, 2024. We had 6,300 active listings in Toronto as of the start of 2025.

Over the next four months, we had 23,873 new listings come on the market. That’s the green column.

During the same time period we had 1,001 suspensions (the first red bar), which is when a listing is put on hold by the seller. Now, this is supposed to be a temporary measure, for example if a seller is ill and can’t allow showings for a week. Some suspensions are genuine, but in our experience, the majority of them are actually no longer for sale. The listing agent suspended the listing and never bothered to do the paperwork to get it properly terminated.

From January to end of April, we also had 2,285 expirations (the 2nd red bar), which are listings that reached the end of the agreed upon listing period and automatically expired.

Our third red bar is transactions, which means sales. We had 7,222 sales in Toronto in the first four months of the year. That’s a bit low, but not shockingly low compared to historical data. In 2024 and 2023 we had about 8,700 sales in the first four months, so we’re down about 1,500 sales, or about 18% lower.

Our fourth and final red bar is terminations, and we had 9,003 in the first four months of 2025. We know for certain that some of those terminations (and indeed some of the expirations and even suspensions) would have come back onto the market and shown up as a “new” listing during the year so far.

As a result of where we started (with 6,300 active listings), what came on the market (about 24,000 new listings), what came off the market (about 19,500 through suspensions, expirations, sales and terminations), we started May, 2025 with 10,662 active listings.

So, there’s the “most ever” of every type of property for sale?

When we get into the specifics of what is on the market, we see nuances to the current market composition.

Every geographic area has a different composition and we’ll review Toronto to give an example of how it looks when we dig deeper.

The below chart shows the active listings in Toronto by property type.

Three types of housing make up 87% of the homes for sale right now. Condo apartment units are the biggest piece of the pie, with 57% of the record level of active listings being condo units. Detached houses make up the next biggest slice and are 23% of the active listings in Toronto. The third largest type of property in the pie is condo townhouses, which represents 7% of the active inventory right now.

The remaining 13% is spread across a few different types of property. First off is Other at 5%, which is comprised of a broad mix of properties including parking spots, vacant land and other specific subsets of residential real estate. Then we have semi-detached houses, which only make up about 4.5% of the active inventory. Freehold townhouses are next and represent about 2.3% of the market. Coop housing and linked freehold homes represent the other tiny slices in the pie chart.

When we look into the historical levels of active listings for the three biggest slices of the pie right now, there are some surprising results.

• For condo apartment units, we have about 6,050 condo units for sale, which is not quite the highest ever. June 2024 and July 2024 both had slightly higher levels, but we’re within 100 of the June 2024 record high of 6,147 condo units for sale.
• Turning to detached houses, we have 2,534 of them for sale in Toronto. That is the highest ever, beating the previous record holder, September 2024, when we had 2,389 detached houses on the market.
• Condo townhouses are also currently at a record high, with 708 condo townhouse properties on the market in Toronto. The previous record holder was October 2024 when there were 680 condo townhouses for sale.

It is surprising that despite the number of headlines about the condo market problems in Toronto, we don’t actually have the highest level of units for sale that we’ve ever seen. At the same time, we’re not seeing many media outlets picking up on the fact that the holy grail of Toronto properties, the detached house, is seeing its highest ever level of inventory right now.

An important component to the story is which price points are seeing the highest levels of inventory, so let’s dig into that now.

What’s your budget? It definitely still matters.

When we look at how the inventory on the market is spread out across different price ranges, you see a few places where you’ve got more options.

There’s a few things worth noting about the above chart.

• The biggest concentration of inventory is for sale in the $500K to $599K band, with over 1,500 options if that’s your budget.
• After that, we jump up to over $2M, with almost 1,200 options if your budget is north of two million.
• The next most sizeable grouping is in the $600K to $699K range, with over 1,200 options.

Looking at this breakdown, you’d be right if you said that a buyer with a budget in the $500K to $700K range has tons of options right now. The question, however, is what type of options? If we look at active listings by price range within our two biggest segments, the story becomes more nuanced.

For condo apartment units for sale right now, here’s the active listings by price range.

We pointed out how you’ve got a lot of options in the $500K to $599K range, with over 1,500 properties for sale in that band. Given that the condo apartment breakdown shows 1,417 options in that price band, we know that almost all of your options for that buying budget are in fact condo units.

If we switch over to the detached houses for sale by price range, here’s the chart.

The $2M plus budget is well represented in the detached house segment of the market, with 854 of the available 2,187 detached houses costing more than $2M.

Other nuances of this segment show up in this chart, such as the fact that there more than twice as many detached houses for sale in the $900K to $999K range as there are in the $800K to $899K range. This is very useful information if you’re a buyer looking for a detached home for under $900K in the city. If you didn’t know that the concentration of detached houses increases rapidly above this price point, you’d likely be confused about the fact that there are more detached homes than ever for sale right now – but not many in your budget.

In our work with clients, we dive deep into the stats to understand what is going on in specific markets. We may start with a given geography, but we dive deep into housing types and price bands to make sure the advice we’re giving is reflective of what’s going on for the type of property you’re trying to buy or sell. If you’re ready to make a move and want us to help figure out the best strategy for your purchase or sale, get in touch!

Whenever there are headlines about real estate in the media, it is often unclear what market results they are sharing, or for what type of real estate the forecasts are focused upon.  Sometimes the headline is about what happened to the average price across Canada in the past year, sometimes a forecast is about what’s coming next in Toronto – and sometimes it isn’t about any market or housing type in particular.

In early February 2025, we attended a Year in Review event put on by the good people at the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board.  As you can imagine, lots of stats were discussed, forecasts were made and coffee was consumed.

We wanted to breakdown one particular segment of the stats across the GTA, namely housing type.  The headlines we reference above are often focused on what’s happening, on average, in a given housing market.  It is rare that these stories talk about what is happening with certain housing types, and make no mistake, there are significant differences in how certain types of homes did and what’s predicted to happen next.

Grab a cup of coffee and sit down as we walk you through what happened in 2024 for your housing type!

First off, what sort of places do people live in?

One thing that surprises many people is the actual percentages of housing types that make up a given market.  We tend to make assumptions about the levels of housing types based on what we see in the neighbours in which we live and work, but the percentages for the area can be quite different.

Here’s the breakdown of percentages for each housing type in the seven areas of the GTA.

With the exception of Toronto, the most common housing type across the GTA is detached homes, followed by apartments.  Toronto swaps the order of those two, but they remain the two most common housing types.  Semi-detached homes and townhouses each make up only 5% to 12% of housing market across the GTA, so they are far less common than you might think.

We’re going to look at prices and sales across the GTA next, so we need to know how much each housing type make up for the GTA on average.  Here are the numbers.

• Detached Houses: Approximately 45.5%
• Semi-Detached Houses: Approximately 8.5%
• Townhouses (Row Houses): Approximately 9.5%
• Apartments: Approximately 36.5%

In a pie chart, that looks like this.

Now that we know the breakdown of housing types in each part of the GTA and the GTA as a whole, let’s look at what happened in 2024!

We did it!  We had (slightly) more sales in 2024!

Last year, we saw a slight increase in the level of homes sold, going up from about 65,900 in 2023 to about 67,600 in 2024.  That’s about 1,700 more sales across the entirety of the GTA, so not exactly a huge difference.

As you can see from the line chart of sales per month, April was the busiest month last year and December came in as the slowest month of the year.

Those sales were spread across the GTA, but not evenly of course.  Toronto saw the largest level of sales, while York and Peel more or less tied for second place.  Durham and Halton each had a pretty significant level of sales but Simcoe was down near the bottom, and Dufferin was the least active market last year in terms of sales.

If we look at the types of homes that sold, we can see that almost half (46%) of homes sold last year were detached homes.  That matches exactly the percentage of homes (46%) that detached homes make up of the housing mix.  Apartments accounted for 28% of the sales last year, despite making up 36% of the housing mix, which means it was a slower year for apartment transactions.  Townhouses made up 18% of the transactions in 2024, despite being just 10% of the housing mix, so it seems like people who were going to buy apartments opted for townhouses instead.  Finally, semi-detached properties were 9% of the sales in 2024, and that’s exactly the percentage of the housing mix they have in the GTA.

Put it all together, and it seems like the sales of detached and semi-detached did what we would expect given the housing mix, but apartments and townhouses decided to switch places in 2024.

We did it!  We had (marginally) more affordable prices in 2024!

On the average price side of the equation, we saw that we saw a slight drop in the average price across the GTA.  It went from about $1.126M in 2023 down to about $1.117M in 2025.  That’s about $9,000, so we’ll hold off on the ticker tape parade for now.

The highest average price of the year was in May of 2024, while the start of the year was the lowest.

Turning to the average price by home type, we see that detached homes lead the market, with an average price of $1.453M in the GTA.  That’s down about $10K from 2023.  Despite not making up much of the sales overall, semi-detached are the second highest price option, at $1.102M.  That’s down about $12K from the year before.  Townhouses saw the biggest actual price drop, going from $949K in 2023 to about $922K on average in 2024, a drop of about $27,000.  This might account for the increase in townhouse sales relative to their percentage of the housing mix, as buyers saw an opportunity.  Apartments dropped about $14K, going from $717K on average in 2023 to about $703K last year.

While no housing type showed an improvement in average price across the GTA in 2024 compared to 2023, it’s far from the housing crash that some pundits predicted would happen.

Let’s call 2024 the year of (trying to) selling your home.

Finally, if we look at the breakdown of new listings, we can see that we had a substantial increase in the level of properties going up for sale in 2024 compared to 2023. We had just over 166,000 listings come on the market last year and that is about 16% more than in 2023.  That’s over 23,000 more new listings compared to 2023.

A reminder that we had 67,609 sales in 2024, which means that only about 41% of the new listings in 2024 actually sold.  Even if some of those “new” listings were re-listings of properties that failed to sell, there were lots of sellers who wanted to find a buyer but didn’t manage to do so.

The percentages when it came to who was trying to sell last year are broadly in keeping with the housing mix percentages we see in the GTA, but townhouses were again a larger part of the mix than would be expected.  They also were the biggest year over year increase in terms of how much of the market inventory they comprised, up 122% compared to the level in 2023.

From a simple numbers perspective, we had the most disappointed sellers in the condo apartment category, with about 9,000 more attempts to sell in 2024 than in 2023.

There you have it, 2024 in review!  It wasn’t a banner year by pretty much any standard, but the review does tell us that where you live and the housing type you own makes a significant difference in how your market did last year.

If you’re thinking about making a move, then you need the specific data for your home and your area, and we’re happy to provide it.  Get in touch with us and we can set a time to talk about how to move you forward!