It’s almost the end of May and in southwestern Ontario, that means it’s a good time to start getting active.
In the real estate world, 2022 has already seen a huge surge in activity. While the mantra from real estate boards, media and politicians has consistently been about the lack of supply over the past few years, we’re entering into a bit of a different situation in the GTA these days.
Active listings are exactly what they sound like – properties currently for sale on the market. From a very fundamental perspective, the more active listings we have on the market, the more choices there are for buyers.
While we have undoubtedly seen a huge level of demand over the past two years, we’ve also seen a significant increase in supply. The result has been record years for the number of sales, with 2021 being officially the busiest year in the GTA for real estate transactions.
With recent increases in interest rates driving up mortgage rates (and driving down purchasing power), it is clear that the demand side of the equation is taking a hit, with less buyers interested or able to purchase in 2022.
At the same time, we have seen supply rising over the past few months. Dropping demand and higher supply is a pretty clear recipe for price drops.
We thought it would be interesting to pull the data to see what’s happening across the main housing types so far in terms of active listings on the market and what we found is astonishing. Let’s look at our levels of active inventory in the Greater Toronto Area across the main housing types since the start of the year.
Active Listings in the GTA in 2022
What’s it mean?
When we look at the above chart, a few things jump out.
First, across all of the four major housing types, the number of active listings is up. Scratch that, way up!
- The number of active condo apartment listings went from around 1,500 in January 2022 to over 3,700 as of April 2022. That’s an increase of over 2.5X in three months.
- When we look at townhouses, we see they went from a mere 226 back in January to over 1,100 in April. That equals almost 5 times as many townhouse options for buyers in April as in the start of the year!
- Semi-detached houses show almost as significant an increase as townhouses, going from 215 in January to over 1,000 in April. That’s 4.6X the level now versus the beginning of 2022.
- Finally, detached homes went from just over 1,900 in the GTA in January to over 6,100 in April. That’s more than three times as many detached home options for buyers.
Secondly, and this isn’t as immediately apparent unless you crunch the numbers, we’ve been seeing fairly consistent increases in terms of percentages each month.
- Condo apartments increased by 36% in February compared to January, then another 39% in March compared to February, then another 34% in April compared to March.
- Townhouses increased by 136% (more than doubling!) in February compared to January, then up a further 70% in March compared to February and finally another 23% in April compared to March.
- Semi-detached houses went up by 133% (again, more than doubling) in February compared to March, then up 53% in March compared to February and up 30% more in April compared to March.
- Detached houses went up 78% in February compared to January, then up 41% in March compared to February and finally up 25% in April compared to March.
When you see significant increases in the number of active listings (24% was the lowest month over month increase in 2022) in every month since the start of the year, that means we’re adding significant numbers to the already significant numbers from the months before!
With more active listings comes more choice for buyers, and when you add in higher interest rates, that means fewer buyers at the same time as there are more sellers.
If you’re interested in buying real estate, then there are some good opportunities coming. If you’re wanting to sell real estate, then now – more than ever – you need to work with agents who know what they’re doing in order to get you the best price. In either case, get in touch!
