It’s December now, which makes me think of poem by my favourite doctor, Dr. Seuss.
How did it get so late so soon?
It’s night before its afternoon.
December is here before it’s June.
My goodness how the time has flewn.
How did it get so late so soon?
Now that the holidays are suddenly almost upon us, it’s the season for some time-honoured traditions.
One such tradition that I have is that each year, I put up our Christmas Tree on December 24th.
By tradition, I mean I don’t get around to doing it until the last possible moment. I compensate for it going up so late by leaving it up until early summer.
I have a similar tradition about sending out holiday cards incredibly late. You can make fun of me if you want, but if you get a Christmas card in March, it really does stand out from the crowd.
The arrival of December always makes me think how the year is almost over.
As I contemplate the passing of time, my thoughts naturally turn to statistical patterns in freehold home sales in the GTA. That’s normal, right? That happens to you as well?
Just like I always talk about how important it is to look at the real estate market numbers in depth rather than relying on the averages to be accurate for your particular situation, it’s worth taking a closer look at timing.
I’ve come up with two charts to show you what I mean.
Below is a chart that shows freehold homes sales in the GTA from about this time last year for a six month period.
It’s pretty clear that starting in December we see sales going down, dipping just a bit more in January and then start t head up in February and March and plateauing a bit by April.
With the number of sales ranging from a low of 2,754 in January up to a high of 7,450 in April, there’s a considerable difference in sales in a given month. After all, more than 2.7x sales took place in April than in January.
If we look closer and go from monthly to weekly, we see things are actually a bit more nuanced than it appeared.
The same overall trend is there, but within each month we see fluctuations in number of sales in each week of a month. In December and January, we see a range of close to 3 times. This means that when we look at the slowest week in the month (the least number of sales) and compare it against the busiest week (most number of sales), we see about three times as many sales in the busiest week.
The range in November as well as February, March and April is closer to about 1.5 times. That’s still a sizeable difference in the number of sales (about 500 more in the busy months) but nothing compared to the 3 times the sales difference we saw in December and January.
I think the key takeaway here is a simple one.
Regardless of how busy or quiet a month is for sales, it still matters which week you are selling or buying real estate. If you are selling in a week that saw lots of other sales, it is likely that you lost some potential buyers to other property options. If you are buying in a week that saw lots of other sales, you might have faced less competition.
I always closely examine other listings that are reasonable comparables to my listing and will often make last minute timing adjustments to better position my client’s home. Whether it is holding off on a listing until after offer dates on a good comparable home or timing our offer date to beat out another option, it is important that time is considered in your strategy.
If you or someone you like are thinking its time to buy or sell, make sure you get in touch with me. I’d love to be responsible for what comes next.
INDIVIDUALLY OWNED SHOPS
When shops are too large, or controlled by absentee owners, they become plastic, bland and abstract.
I regularly have conversations where buyers are looking for a home located in walking distance of a nice commercial strip with stores. The stated reason is often practical, such as being able to get a coffee or go to dinner or shop for items.
When the commercial strip is comprised mainly of large stores or franchises, despite the practical reason for it still being appealing, buyers suddenly don’t like the area. It is small, individually owned restaurants and shops that give a neighbourhood character and life.