Dufferin Market Analysis

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Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Dufferin area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

Let’s review the big picture before we get into the details below. In July, sales in Dufferin rose by about 32% compared to June. At the same time, the average sale price dropped by about $8,000. On the supply side, new listings dropped by about 16% compared to June. When we put it all together, July looked more active, but the price side of the market was still fairly restrained.

Here’s the latest charts for each of the three big categories (number of sales, average sale price and number of new listings), going back month by month for the last two years.

The number of sales that took place is a fundamental stat as it tells us how active the market actually is these days.  We’re particularly focused on how busy this month was compared to the last month as well as any trends we see in the number of sales that have been taking place recently.  It’s also interesting to see if this a typical month in terms of sales, which we do by looking at the chart below and seeing how it compares to the same time last year and the year before.

When we review the number of sales in Dufferin, we see that there were 90 sales in July, compared to 68 sales in June. That was a big increase, with sales up about 32% from June, or 22 sales higher month over month. Compared to July of last year, sales were down about 7%, or 7 sales lower.

The average sale price tends to fluctuate month by month and there are definitely seasonal variability.  Using the chart below, we can look for any recent market trends in terms of pricing rising or dropping for a number of months and look back at the same time last year and two years ago to see what sort of annual appreciation we’ve been seeing for sale prices.

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Dufferin in July? In June, the average price was approximately $900,000, and in July, it was about $891,000. That was a small decrease, with the average price down about 1% from June, or $8,000 lower month over month. Compared to July of last year, the average price was down about 4%, or roughly $36,000.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

Here’s the latest data on how many days on market it took for homes to sell in Dufferin.

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Dufferin in July is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Dufferin in July was 45 days, compared to 54 days in June. That was a meaningful decrease, with average days on market down about 17% from June, or 9 days lower month over month. In practical terms, the market would have felt noticeably faster. Compared to July of last year, average days on market was up about 13%, or 5 days higher.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

Now that we’re clear on the meaning, here’s the average sale to list price ratio each month for the last couple of years.

The average sale-to-list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Dufferin in July was 97.5%, compared to 96.0% in June. That was a meaningful increase, with the ratio up 1.5 percentage points from June. While this stat is influenced by sellers listing below market value and setting offer dates, in practical terms, the market would have felt noticeably more competitive. Compared to July of last year, the sale-to-list price ratio was up 0.7 percentage points.

To forecast where prices may go next in Dufferin, we’ve reviewed three predictive stats: the sale-to-new-listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory. Together, the indicators lean in one direction and suggest moderate downward pressure on average prices in August. Our prediction is that the average price in Dufferin in August will fall by about 1% to 2%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $13,000 from July’s average price. That would put the August average price in Dufferin at about $878,000.

Here’s three charts for our predictive stats, looking at the Sales to New Listing Ratio, number of Active Listings and Months of Inventory.  It is interesting to see fluctuations over the past two years but we’re particularly focused on the most recent month as that is the best predictor of what is coming next.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

Let’s look at the latest SNLR in to see where we’ve landed and what sort of market we start next month with in Dufferin.

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR, which compares the number of sales to the number of new listings coming onto the market. In July, Dufferin’s SNLR was 38%, up 14 percentage points from 24% in June. That puts Dufferin in a buyer’s market, where new supply is outpacing demand. On its own, the SNLR is pointing to little clear pressure either way on prices heading into August.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

Fewer active listings tend to indicates that prices will rise as buyers battle for the properties on the market.  Let’s take a look at the latest numbers.

The second predictive stat is active listings, which tells us how many properties buyers had to choose from at the start of August. In Dufferin at the end of July, there were 599 active listings, compared to 606 at the end of June. That was a small change, with active listings down about 1% from June, or 7 listings lower month over month. Compared to July of last year, active listings were down about 2%, or 12 listings lower. Looking at the last two years, the current level of active listings is elevated. Overall, the number of active listings predicts that prices should drop in August.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Dufferin.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all houses on the market in Dufferin to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market.

How is Dufferin doing in terms of months of inventory?  Remember that the lower the levels of inventory, the more likely it is that prices will rise.

The third predictive stat is months of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell through the available listings at the current pace of sales and, as a result, gives us a useful read on whether buyers are gaining or losing leverage. In Dufferin at the end of July, there were 6.7 months of inventory, which was down about 25% from June, or 2.2 months lower month over month. This July’s level was higher than July of last year by 0.4 months, or about 6%. Compared with the last two July levels, July 2024 was at 5.5 months and July 2025 was at 6.3 months. Even with that historical context, current supply conditions are highly elevated. Broadly speaking, with 6.7 months of inventory available for buyers, that still leaves enough supply relative to sales that prices should drop in August.

There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to summarize what happened and to understand what it all means.

July saw stronger sales, lower prices, and fewer new listings.

Overall, July was a better month than June in terms of activity, although sales are still above what we saw two years ago. Sales rose 32% month-over-month (68 to 90, just 22 more), which is below July 2025 (97) and above July 2024 (85). For condo apartments, sales rose 100% (2 to 4, just 2 more).

The average sale price fell 0.9% ($900,000 to $890,000, about $10,000 lower). For condo apartments, the average price fell 14.1% ($510,000 to $440,000, about $70,000 lower).

New listings fell 16% overall (282 to 236). For condo apartments, new listings remained more or less unchanged (9 to 9).

Dufferin felt noticeably faster paced, but a bit more competitive.

Overall, July was faster than June. Average days on market fell to 45 days from 54 (down 9 days or about 16%).

That is a meaningful improvement. Compared with the last two July levels, the overall market is slower than July 2025, when homes took 40 days on average to sell, and slower than July 2024, when homes took 32 days on average to sell. For condo apartments, days on market fell to 31 days from 34. Compared with the last two July levels, that is faster than July 2025, when condo apartments took 42 days on average to sell, and slower than July 2024, when they took 20 days on average to sell.

Sale-to-list tells a similar story. Overall, it was up at 97.5% (up from 96.0%). For condo apartments, sale-to-list was up at 98.0% (up from 97.0%). That points to a somewhat more competitive overall market.

August prices will drop in Dufferin, with condo apartments giving a more mixed signal.

When we review three predictive stats (the sale to new listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory), we see that the SNLR rose to 38% from 24%, active listings fell to 599 (down 1%), and months of inventory moved to 6.7 months. Taken together, the indicators are giving a clear signal of strong downward pressure on average prices in August. Our prediction is that the average price in Dufferin in August will fall by about 1% to 2%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $13,000 from July’s average price. That would put the August average price in Dufferin at about $878,000.

For condo apartments, conditions are mixed. The SNLR was 44%, active listings were 21 (down 5%), and months of inventory moved to 5.3 months. For condo apartments, these stats are more mixed than decisive. Based on that, our prediction is that the average condo price in Dufferin will remain roughly flat to slightly lower in August. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $2,000 from July’s average condo price, putting the August average at about $435,000.

We hope you found this review and analysis of Dufferin helpful and check back in near the start of the next month for the latest update on what is happening in Dufferin!

We hope you found this review of the latest market stats helpful!  Within the Refined team we work throughout the GTA and we often partner with local agents we know and trust to make sure our clients get the best of both worlds.  If you’re considering buying or selling and want to work with people who understand your market, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us.  Otherwise, check back near the start of next month to see the latest Dufferin market analysis!