Dufferin Market Analysis

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Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Dufferin area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

Let’s review the big picture before we get into the details below. In September, Dufferin saw 66 sales, about 2% more than in August. The average sale price fell by about $36,000, while new listings increased by about 31%. When we put it all together, more buyers completed purchases and more would-be sellers listed their homes, but those additional sales did not translate into a higher average sale price.

Here’s the latest charts for each of the three big categories (number of sales, average sale price and number of new listings), going back month by month for the last two years.

The number of sales that took place is a fundamental stat as it tells us how active the market actually is these days.  We’re particularly focused on how busy this month was compared to the last month as well as any trends we see in the number of sales that have been taking place recently.  It’s also interesting to see if this a typical month in terms of sales, which we do by looking at the chart below and seeing how it compares to the same time last year and the year before.

When we review the number of sales in Dufferin, we see that there were 66 sales in September, compared to 65 sales in August. That was only a small change, with just one more sale than in August! Compared to September of last year, sales were down about 16%, or 13 sales lower.

The average sale price tends to fluctuate month by month and there are definitely seasonal variability.  Using the chart below, we can look for any recent market trends in terms of pricing rising or dropping for a number of months and look back at the same time last year and two years ago to see what sort of annual appreciation we’ve been seeing for sale prices.

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Dufferin in September? In August, the average price was approximately $840,000, and in September, it was about $804,000. That was a modest decrease, with the average price down about 4% from August, or $36,000 lower month over month. Compared to September of last year, the average price was down about 10%, or roughly $85,000.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

Here’s the latest data on how many days on market it took for homes to sell in Dufferin.

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Dufferin in September is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Dufferin in September was 47 days, compared to 51 days in August. That was a modest decrease, with average days on market down about 8% from August, or 4 days lower month over month. In practical terms, the market would have felt somewhat faster. Compared to September of last year, average days on market was up about 9%, or 4 days higher.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

Now that we’re clear on the meaning, here’s the average sale to list price ratio each month for the last couple of years.

The average sale-to-list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Dufferin in September was 96.2%, compared to 96.3% in August. That was essentially unchanged from August, with a difference of just 0.1 percentage points. While this stat is influenced by sellers listing below market value and setting offer dates, in practical terms, that monthly movement was too small to suggest the market felt noticeably more or less competitive. Compared to September of last year, the sale-to-list price ratio was essentially unchanged.

To forecast where prices may go next in Dufferin, we’ve reviewed three predictive stats: the sale-to-new-listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory. Taken together, the indicators point clearly to very strong downward pressure on average prices in October. Our prediction is that the average price in Dufferin in October will fall by about 4% to 6%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $40,000 from September’s average price. That would put the October average price in Dufferin at about $764,000.

Here’s three charts for our predictive stats, looking at the Sales to New Listing Ratio, number of Active Listings and Months of Inventory.  It is interesting to see fluctuations over the past two years but we’re particularly focused on the most recent month as that is the best predictor of what is coming next.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

Let’s look at the latest SNLR in to see where we’ve landed and what sort of market we start next month with in Dufferin.

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR, which compares the number of sales to the number of new listings coming onto the market. In September, Dufferin’s SNLR was 28%, down 8 percentage points from 36% in August. That puts Dufferin in a buyer’s market, where new supply is outpacing demand. On its own, the SNLR is pointing to strong downward pressure on prices heading into October.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

Fewer active listings tend to indicates that prices will rise as buyers battle for the properties on the market.  Let’s take a look at the latest numbers.

The second predictive stat is active listings, which tells us how many properties buyers had to choose from at the start of October. In Dufferin at the end of September, there were 575 active listings, compared to 586 at the end of August. That was a small change, with active listings down about 2% from August, or 11 listings lower month over month. Compared to September of last year, active listings were down about 2%, or 14 listings lower. The current count sits near the top of its two-year range. Although active listings fell from August, the absolute level remains high enough relative to the last two years to put downward pressure on prices in October.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Dufferin.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all houses on the market in Dufferin to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market.

How is Dufferin doing in terms of months of inventory?  Remember that the lower the levels of inventory, the more likely it is that prices will rise.

The third predictive stat is months of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell through the available listings at the current pace of sales and, as a result, gives us a useful read on whether buyers are gaining or losing leverage. In Dufferin at the end of September, there were 8.7 months of inventory, which was down about 3% from August, or 0.3 months lower month over month. This September’s level was higher than September of last year by 1.2 months, or about 16%. Compared with the last two September levels, September 2024 was at 7.7 months and September 2025 was at 7.5 months. Even with that historical context, current supply conditions are highly elevated. Broadly speaking, with 8.7 months of inventory available for buyers, that still leaves enough supply relative to sales that prices should drop in October.

The charts and analysis above cover a lot of ground, so it is worth stepping back to summarize what happened and what it means.

September saw stronger sales, lower prices, and more new listings.

Overall, September was a better month than August in terms of activity, although sales are still above what we saw two years ago. Sales rose 2% month-over-month (65 to 66, just 1 more), which is below September 2025 (79) and equal to September 2024 (66). In the condo segment, sales rose 100% (1 to 2, just 1 more).

The average sale price fell 4.3% ($840,000 to $800,000, about $40,000 lower). In the condo segment, the average price fell 27.2% ($410,000 to $300,000, about $110,000 lower).

New listings rose 31% overall (179 to 235). Condo new listings rose 17% (6 to 7). Taken together, supply grew faster than demand overall, which can limit seller pricing power if the new supply is not absorbed quickly.

Dufferin felt somewhat faster paced, but a bit less competitive.

Overall, September was faster than August. Average days on market fell to 47 days from 51 (down 4 days or about 8%).

That is a modest improvement. Compared with the last two September levels, the overall market is slower than September 2025, when homes took 43 days on average to sell, and slower than September 2024, when homes took 35 days on average to sell. In the condo segment, days on market fell to 46 days from 90. Compared with the last two September levels, that is faster than September 2025, when condo apartments took 56 days on average to sell, and slower than September 2024, when they took 0 days on average to sell.

Sale-to-list tells a different story in the overall market and condo segment. Across the overall market, the ratio fell to 96.2% (from 96.3%). In the condo segment, the sale-to-list ratio rose to 96.1% (from 93.2%). Taken together, the overall market moved faster, but sellers did not gain much negotiating leverage.

October prices will face very strong downward pressure in Dufferin, with condo apartments also facing strong downward pressure.

The supporting indicators show the SNLR fell to 28% from 36%, active listings fell to 575 (down 2%), and months of inventory stood at 8.7 months. Taken together, the indicators point clearly to very strong downward pressure on average prices in October. Our prediction is that the average price in Dufferin in October will fall by about 4% to 6%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $40,000 from September’s average price. That would put the October average price in Dufferin at about $764,000.

In the condo segment, conditions are weaker. Supporting that view, the SNLR was 29%, active listings stood at 13 (down 28%), and months of inventory stood at 6.5 months. Taken together, the condo indicators are pointing pretty clearly in one direction, with strong downward pressure on average condo prices. To forecast where condo prices may go next in Dufferin, we’ve reviewed three predictive stats the sale-to-new-listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory. Together, the condo signals are fairly balanced, so we would not make a clear condo price prediction from these indicators alone.

We hope this review and analysis of Dufferin was helpful. Check back near the start of next month for the latest update on what is happening in Dufferin!

We hope you found this review of the latest market stats helpful!  Within the Refined team we work throughout the GTA and we often partner with local agents we know and trust to make sure our clients get the best of both worlds.  If you’re considering buying or selling and want to work with people who understand your market, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us.  Otherwise, check back near the start of next month to see the latest Dufferin market analysis!