Simcoe Market Analysis

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Simcoe area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

Let’s review the big picture before we get into the details below. In May, sales in Simcoe rose by about 14% compared to April. At the same time, the average sale price rose by about $36,000. On the supply side, new listings rose by about 7% compared to April. When we put it all together, May looked like a busier and more active market, with more buyers and sellers stepping in and prices moving higher.

Here’s the latest charts for each of the three big categories (number of sales, average sale price and number of new listings), going back month by month for the last two years.

Let’s begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in the last month.  This is a fundamental stat as it tells us how many deals are actually taking place in the market.  We’re particularly focused on how busy this month was compared to the last month as well as any trends we see in the number of sales that have been taking place recently.  It’s also interesting to see if this a typical month in terms of sales, which we do by looking at the chart below and seeing how it compares to the same time last year and the year before.

When we review the number of sales in Simcoe, we see that there were 825 sales in May, compared to 723 sales in April. That was a meaningful increase, with sales up about 14% from April, or 102 sales higher month over month. Compared to May of last year, sales were up about 8%, or 60 sales higher. This was also the highest number of sales recorded in the last two years.

The average sale price tends to fluctuate month by month and there are definitely seasonal variability.  Using the chart below, we can look for any recent market trends in terms of pricing rising or dropping for a number of months and look back at the same time last year and two years ago to see what sort of annual appreciation we’ve been seeing for sale prices.

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Simcoe in May? In April, the average price was approximately $743,000, and in May, it was about $779,000. That was a modest increase, with the average price up about 5% from April, or $36,000 higher month over month. Compared to May of last year, the average price was down about 4%, or roughly $31,000.

Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Simcoe in May, we see that there were 2,752 new listings, compared to 2,568 new listings in April. That was a modest increase, with new listings up about 7% from April, or 184 new listings higher month over month. Compared to May of last year, new listings were down about 14%, or 439 new listings lower.

To understand how it felt to buy or sell in Simcoe in May, we can look at how quickly homes were selling and how close sellers were getting to their list price. Homes were selling at the same pace as in April, so the pace of the market would have felt about the same. At the same time, sellers were getting slightly less of their list price, but the market probably would not have felt much less competitive. Let’s get into the details below.

Here’s the latest charts for these two categories (average days on market and average sale to list price ratio), going back month by month for the last two years.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

Here’s the latest data on how many days on market it took for homes to sell in Simcoe.

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Simcoe in May is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Simcoe in May was 42 days, compared to 42 days in April. That means the time it took homes to sell was unchanged from the previous month. In practical terms, the pace of the market would have felt about the same. Compared to May of last year, average days on market was up about 14%, or 5 days higher.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

Now that we’re clear on the meaning, here’s the average sale to list price ratio each month for the last couple of years.

The average sale-to-list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Simcoe in May was 96.8%, compared to 97.0% in April. That was a very small decrease, with the ratio down 0.2 percentage points from April. While this stat is influenced by sellers listing below market value and setting offer dates, in practical terms, the market probably would not have felt much less competitive. Compared to May of last year, the sale-to-list price ratio was down 0.6 percentage points.

To forecast where prices may go next in Simcoe, we’ve reviewed three predictive stats: the sale-to-new-listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory. Together, the indicators give a clear signal and suggest strong downward pressure on average prices in June. Our prediction is that the average price in Simcoe in June will fall by about 2% to 4%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $23,000 from May’s average price. That would put the June average price in Simcoe at about $755,000.

Here’s three charts for our predictive stats, looking at the Sales to New Listing Ratio, number of Active Listings and Months of Inventory.  It is interesting to see fluctuations over the past two years but we’re particularly focused on the most recent month as that is the best predictor of what is coming next.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

Let’s look at the latest SNLR in to see where we’ve landed and what sort of market we start next month with in Simcoe.

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR, which compares the number of sales to the number of new listings coming onto the market. In May, Simcoe’s SNLR was 30%, up 2 percentage points from 28% in April. That puts Simcoe in a buyer’s market, where new supply is outpacing demand. On its own, the SNLR is pointing to some downward pressure on prices heading into June.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

Fewer active listings tend to indicates that prices will rise as buyers battle for the properties on the market.  Let’s take a look at the latest numbers.

The second predictive stat is active listings, which tells us how many properties buyers had to choose from at the start of June. In Simcoe at the end of May, there were 5,125 active listings, compared to 4,589 at the end of April. That was a meaningful change, with active listings up about 12% from April, or 536 listings higher month over month. Compared to May of last year, active listings were down about 4%, or 237 listings lower. Looking at the last two years, the current level of active listings is normal. Overall, the number of active listings predicts that prices should drop in June.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Simcoe.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all houses on the market in Simcoe to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market.

How is Simcoe doing in terms of months of inventory?  Remember that the lower the levels of inventory, the more likely it is that prices will rise.

The third predictive stat is months of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell through the available listings at the current pace of sales and, as a result, gives us a useful read on whether buyers are gaining or losing leverage. In Simcoe at the end of May, there were 6.2 months of inventory, which was down about 2% from April, or 0.1 months lower month over month. This May’s level was lower than May of last year by 0.8 months, or about 11%. That puts the current months of inventory between the last two May levels, with May 2024 at 4.8 months and May 2025 at 7.0 months. As such, we’d say that supply conditions are normal for this time of year. Broadly speaking, with 6.2 months of inventory available for buyers, that still leaves enough supply relative to sales that prices should drop in June.

There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to summarize what happened and to understand what it all means.

May saw stronger sales, higher prices, and more new listings.

Overall, May was a better month than April in terms of activity, although sales are still below what we saw two years ago. Sales rose 14% month-over-month (723 to 825, about 102 more), which is above May 2025 (765) and below May 2024 (855). For condo apartments, sales were unchanged (46 to 46).

The average sale price rose 4.8% ($740,000 to $780,000, about $40,000 higher). For condo apartments, the average price rose 8.3% ($460,000 to $500,000, about $40,000 higher).

New listings rose 7% overall (2,568 to 2,752). For condo apartments, new listings rose 2% (181 to 184). For condo apartments, the balance is less favourable because new listings increased faster than sales did.

Simcoe felt similar in pace, but a bit less competitive.

Overall, May was effectively unchanged from April. Average days on market held at 42 days, compared to 42 days in April.

That leaves the overall pace essentially unchanged. Compared with the last two May levels, the overall market is slower than May 2025, when homes took 37 days on average to sell, and slower than May 2024, when homes took 33 days on average to sell. For condo apartments, days on market fell to 63 days from 70. Compared with the last two May levels, that is slower than May 2025, when condo apartments took 49 days on average to sell, and slower than May 2024, when they took 43 days on average to sell.

Sale-to-list shows a different story between the overall market and condo apartments. Overall, it was down at 96.8% (down from 97.0%). For condo apartments, sale-to-list was up at 95.8% (up from 95.6%). That tells us the overall market moved faster, but sellers did not gain much negotiating leverage.

June prices will drop in Simcoe, with condo apartments also facing strong downward pressure.

When we review three predictive stats (the sale to new listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory), we see that the SNLR rose to 30% from 28%, active listings rose to 5,125 (up 12%), and months of inventory moved to 6.2 months. Taken together, the indicators are giving a clear signal of strong downward pressure on average prices in June. Our prediction is that the average price in Simcoe in June will fall by about 2% to 4%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $23,000 from May’s average price. That would put the June average price in Simcoe at about $755,000.

For condo apartments, conditions are weaker. The SNLR was 25%, active listings were 418 (up 5%), and months of inventory moved to 9.1 months. For condo apartments, these stats are pointing pretty clearly in one direction, with strong downward pressure on average condo prices. Based on that, our prediction is that the average condo price in Simcoe will fall by about 2% to 4% in June. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $15,000 from May’s average condo price, putting the June average at about $486,000.

We hope you found this review and analysis of Simcoe helpful and check back in near the start of the next month for the latest update on what is happening in Simcoe!

We hope you found this review of the latest market stats helpful!  Within the Refined team we work throughout the GTA and we often partner with local agents we know and trust to make sure our clients get the best of both worlds.  If you’re considering buying or selling and want to work with people who understand your market, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us.  Otherwise, check back near the start of next month to see the latest Simcoe market analysis!