Toronto Market Analysis

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Toronto area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

When we look at the April numbers for Toronto, we see some good signs compared to last month, but troubling numbers for this time of year.  We saw the number of sales in Toronto rise by about 8% in April compared to March, our average sale price went up by about $56,000 and we saw the number of new listings increase a bit.

Let’s look at the specifics for what was going on in Toronto in our three big categories.

If we begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in April, we saw the number of sales rise to around 2,100 for the month.

What’s it mean?

When we review the number of sales in Toronto, we see that there were about 8% more sales in April than March. In actual number of transactions, we went from 1,980 sales up to 2,132, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 150 more sales in Toronto.  It’s good to see some more sales, but when we compare against this time last year, we’re seeing about 20% fewer sales than in April 2024.  This is a consistent trend so far this year and it means we’re well under the number of sales we would typically have seen in Toronto by this point.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

If we look just at the condo segment of the market in Toronto, there were about 1% fewer sales in April than March. We went from 933 condo apartment sales down to 928, which means on a month over month basis, there were exactly 5 fewer sales of condo units in Toronto.

In terms of prices, April saw the average price for a home in Toronto rise to approximately $1,152,000.

What’s it mean? 

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Toronto in April? In March the average price was approximately $1,097,000 and April saw that go up by 5.1% to about $1,152,000. That works out to a difference of around $56,000 when compared to last month.  That’s pretty close to the average price in Toronto a year ago, when it was $1.148M.  There is no consistent trend this year in terms of prices though, as we’ve seen a pattern of it rising and then falling.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

For the condo market, this is what we saw happen to the average price for a unit. In March the average price for a condo apartment was approximately $724,000 and in April we saw that go down by 2.4% to about $707,000. In dollars, that works out to about $17,000 different than last month.  Unlike the market as a whole, condo prices have fallen in the past year to the tune of about $56,000.  Yes, the market as a whole went up $56K in one month and the condo market fell by $56K in one year.  We are definitely seeing some divergences between the condo segment and the market as a whole.

Our final source for what’s been happening this month in the Toronto real estate market is the number of new listings that came on the market. In April we saw that number go up, with 7,385 new listings in the city.

What’s it mean? 

Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Toronto in April, we see that we had 7,385 new listings, compared to 6,726 new listings in March. That’s approximately 10% more new listings, on a month over month basis.  We had about 5% more new listings this April compared to April 2024 and given we’ve seen significantly fewer sales this month than a year ago, that’s not actually good news.  We will see that very clearly when we review our current record level of active listings in the city!

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

In terms of the the number of new condo apartment listings that came onto the market in Toronto in April, we had 3,707 new listings, compared to 3,584 new listings in March. That’s about 3% more new condo listings, on a month over month basis.  When we look against a year ago, we actually had fewer new condo listings this April than back in April 2024.  Given the glut of media stories about the terrible condo market, that’s not particularly surprising.

In order to get a sense of how it felt if you were buying or selling in Toronto in April, we can look at how long it took properties to sell, as well as whether sellers got their list price, or not! When we do so, we see that the average days on market went down, but by just one day. Our sale to list price ratio is also down from March, so while properties were selling a tiny bit quicker, the market felt less competitive in April.

Let’s look in detail at the two specific stats that tell us how it felt to buy and sell in Toronto this month.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

In April we saw the length of time that it took for homes to sell go down to 26 days on average.

How did it feel?

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Toronto in April is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Toronto in April was 26 days, which is down one day from March, when it was 27 days. That means the length of time it took to sell went down by about 4%. That’s just an insignificant change but it would have felt a small bit faster paced if you were transacting in the market.  We’re about four days slower than this time last year, but not a huge difference compared to April 2024.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

In the condo market, the average days on market in Toronto in April was 33 days, which is the same as in from March. A year ago, the average length of time it took a condo unit to sell in the city was 27 days, so we’re almost a full week slower than in April 2024.  With no change compared to last month, the condo market would have continued to feel pretty slow paced.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

In April, the average sale to list price ratio in the city decreased to 101%.

How did it feel?

The average sale to list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Toronto in April was 100.7%, which is down from March when it was 101.0%. While this stat is influenced by sellers listing below market value with an offer date, the fact that this stat decreased slightly compared to last month is an indication that the market felt less competitive in April.  A year ago the sale to list price ratio in Toronto was 102.8%, or about 1.5% more over asking than right now, so we’re certainly seeing a less competitive April than we saw in 2024.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

In the condo segment of the market, the average sale to list price ratio in Toronto in April was 97.8%, which is down from March when it was 98.7%. The fact that the sale to list price ratio decreased for condo sellers compared to last tells us the condo segment of the market was less competitive in April.  When we look to April 2024, the sale to list price ratio for the condo market was 99.7%, which means sellers are getting almost 2% less than their listing price now compared to last year.

In order to predict what is coming next for Toronto’s real estate market, we can look at three predictive stats, which we go into in detail below. When we look at the big picture about what these stats predict for sale prices, there’s a consistent indication across all three predictive stats that the average price will drop significantly in Toronto in May. Whether that is good news or not depends on if you’re on the buying or selling side!

Let’s take a more detailed look at the three predictive stats we have for what comes next in the Toronto market.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

In April, we saw the SNLR in Toronto decrease to 29%, which means we’re in a buyer’s market right now in the city.

What does this predict?

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales to new list ratio (or SNLR) which decreased in April, going down by 1% to 29%, which is effectively a 2% decrease in one month. This is not a significant enough change that it is likely to impact prices next month, however we do need to also consider what sort of market the current SNLR lands us in this month. In this case, given the SNLR of 29% we would describe Toronto as firmly in a buyer’s market. In such a market, there is a strong likelihood that the that the average price will drop next month.

How will the condo market do?

The SNLR for the condo market decreased in April, going down by 1% to 25%, which is effectively a 4% decrease in one month. We’re just 1% away from our two year low of 24%, which took place in September 2024.  Given it dropped slightly and is at near historic low numbers, this stat definitely predicts we’ll see the average price for condo units drop again in Toronto in May.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

April saw the number of active listings in Toronto increase, going up to 10,681 options for buyers as of the end of the month.

What does this predict?

The second predictive stat is the number of active listings in Toronto. We had 10,681 active listings on the market as of the end of April, which is approximately a 11% increase compared to March when we had 9,654 listings on the market at the end of the month.  More crucially, this means that April ended with the highest ever number of active listings in the city.  We started the month of May with more properties for sale than ever before, and that means that prices should drop this month.

How will the condo market do?

We had 6,075 active condo unit listings on the market as of the end of April, which is approximately a 7% increase over March, when we had 5,659 listings on the market at the end of the month. While the market as a whole hit a new record for levels of active listings, April’s level of condo units is just the third highest in our history.  This is largely due to condo owners deciding now is not the time to sell as they see units sit for significant amounts of time on the market.  Regardless, this stat is still quite elevated and it predicts that condo prices should drop in Toronto in May.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Toronto.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all properties on the market in Toronto to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market, but Toronto is almost always significantly below that level.

April saw Toronto’s months of inventory drop, and it is now at 5.0 months.

What does this predict?

Let’s look at what our current months of inventory for Toronto predict what will happen to prices next month. The MOI as of the end of April was 5.0 months, which means that technically, the Toronto market is a buyer’s market as of right now. We’ve been hovering around the 5.0 months worth of inventory for all of this year, so we’d say our current level is only a moderate predictor of a price drop.  Nonetheless, that level is high for Toronto so it does mean that prices staying flat or lowering is what’s likely in May.

How will the condo market do?

The MOI for the condo segment of the market as of the end of April was 6.5 months, which means that the Toronto condo market is a buyer’s market as of right now. That is our new highest ever level of condo inventory in the city, which says that it means condo prices should drop again in May.

There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to understand what it all means.

We hope you found this review and analysis of Toronto helpful and check back in near the start of the next month for the latest update on what is happening in Toronto!