Toronto Market Analysis
The Toronto Real Estate Board tracks statistics using geographic boundaries called MLS areas. These areas typically correspond quite closely to counties or regions. In the case of Toronto, it is pretty much exactly the City of Toronto. With just over 2.7 million residents, Toronto includes Etobicoke, York (Old York, not to be confused with York Region), North York, East York and Scarborough, plus of course central Toronto.
We know your market and here’s where we prove it.
Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Toronto area and our take on what it means. We do that by answering three questions for you.
Let’s get started.
December in the city did not bring many surprises. Sales were down, as were the number of new listings and we also ended the year with a drop in the average price for a home in Toronto. All in all, a pretty typical December!
Let’s look at the specifics for what was going on in Toronto in our three big categories.
If we begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in December, we saw the number of sales drop to around 1,200 for the month.
What’s it mean?
When we review the number of sales in Toronto, we see that there were about 47% fewer sales in December than November. In actual number of transactions, we went from 2,231 sales down to 1,174, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 1060 fewer sales in Toronto. We had about 24,600 sales in the city over the course of the year and that is ever so slightly better than 2023, when Toronto had about 24,300.
Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?
In the condo segment of the market, there were about 46% fewer sales in December than November. We went from 1,125 sales of condo units down to 606 sales, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 520 fewer sales of condo apartments in the city. The total number of condo apartment sales in Toronto in 2024 ended up being about 12,300, which is a tiny bit below the level in 2023, when the city had 12,800 sales of condo units.
In terms of prices, December saw the average price for a home in Toronto drop to around $1,034,000.
What’s it mean?
While the level of activity in the market (i.e. the number of sales) is an important aspect, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Toronto in December? In November the average price was approximately $1,080,000 and December saw that go down by about 4% to $1,034,000. That works out to a difference of about $47,000 when compared to last month. When we look at the average price as of the end of December 2023 and compare to our average price in the city as of the end of December 2024, we’re down about 3% over the course of the year.
Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?
On the condo front, in November the average price was $713,328 and December saw that go up by approximately 1% to $719,766. That works out to a difference of about $6,000 when compared to last month. Yes, the market as a whole dropped by $47,000 but the condo segment actually went up! The even better news for the condo market is that in a year over year comparison, the average price for a condo unit is up by about $12,000 compared to the end of December 2023, when it was around $708,000.
Our final source for what’s been happening this month in the Toronto real estate market is the number of new listings that came on the market. In December we saw that number go down, with 1,815 new listings in the city.
What’s it mean?
Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Toronto in December, we see that we had 1,815 new listings, compared to 4,367 new listings in November. That’s approximately 58% fewer new listings, on a month over month basis. December always see a slow down in the level of new listings, as no one wants to try to sell over the holidays if they can avoid it. Despite that drop, we still had more new listings this December compared to December of 2023, when we had just 1,522 new properties hit the market.
Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?
For condo units, we had 1,158 new listings, compared to 2,524 new listings in November. That’s approximately 54% fewer new listings, on a month over month basis. Just like the market as a whole, we did see more condo units come on the market in December than is typical for this time of year. We had 962 condo units listed in December 2023 in Toronto and 910 condo units back in December 2022. Our 1,158 this December is therefore a bit higher than we typically see and is indicative of the number of units still needing to be sold by owners.
We hit a two-year high for days on market in December, with properties staying on the market, on average, for 39 days. Our sale to list price ratio also dropped to the lowest level of the year, with sellers getting 98.3% of their asking price on average. Put the two together and the market felt quite slow and less competitive.
Let’s look in detail at the two specific stats that tell us how it felt to buy and sell in Toronto this month.
One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market. The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides. While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly. The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.
In December we saw the length of time that it took for homes to sell go up to 39 days on average.
How did it feel?
One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Toronto in December is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Toronto in December was 39 days, which is up 8 days from November, when it was 31 days. That means the length of time it took to sell went go up to by about 26%. That’s a very significant change, and it made December 2024 the slowest moving market in more than two years in the city. As such, it it would have felt slower paced if you were transacting in the market.
Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?
When we look at just condo apartment units, the average days on market in the condo segment of the Toronto market in December was 39 days, which is up 3 days from November, when it was 36 days. While the condo market is moving as slowly as the market as a whole, it wasn’t the slowest paced month in the past two years. That dubious honour goes to January 2024, when it took 41 days to sell a condo unit in Toronto. Condo units have taken about 35 days to sell in Toronto since August 2024, so while it felt slow if you were buying or selling a condo in December, that was not a particularly new experience.
The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio. This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers. If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property. If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.
In December, the average sale to list price ratio in the city decreased to 98.3%.
How did it feel?
If we want another example of how it felt in Toronto, it’s the sale to list price ratio. This is how much over (or under) the list price buyers had to pay in order to buy a home. The average sale to list price ratio in Toronto in December was 98.3%, which is down from November when it was 98.9%. In exact percentages, there was a 0.6% drop in how much over list price sellers received, which means the market felt less competitive in December. That is the lowest sale to list price ratio in all of 2024, but 2023 had three months were it dipped below our current levels. Nonetheless, December was the least competitive feeling month in all of 2024 for the Toronto market as a whole.
Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?
When it comes to how it felt to be buying or selling a condo apartment in Toronto, the average sale to list price ratio in December was 98%, which is the same as it was in November 2024. Since September, the condo market has traded at around a 2% discount to list price, so while December was not a change, it still would have felt not very competitive if you were transacting in the condo market.
When we look at our predictive stats for Toronto, the overall indication is that prices should rise in January in the city. We say this because the sales to new listing ratio went up in December and is now in seller’s market territory, our number of active listings went down and our months of inventory went up. The first two of those things typically result in prices going up as buyers compete over fewer options, while a higher months of inventory means prices should drop. Overall, we’re anticipating that the average price in Toronto will increase in January.
Let’s take a more detailed look at the three predictive stats we have for what comes next in the Toronto market.
Let’s start with an acronym! The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months. It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.
- If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
- Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
- Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month. This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.
In December, we saw the SNLR in Toronto increase to 64.7%, which means we’re in a bit of a a seller’s market but not far off from being balanced right now in the city.
What does this predict?
The SNLR increased in December, going up by 14% to 65%, which is effectively a 27% increase in one month. This could push the average price up next month, however we do need to also consider what sort of market the current SNLR lands us in this month. In this case, given the SNLR of 65% we would describe Toronto as a bit of a a seller’s market but not far off from being balanced. In such a market, there is moderate likelihood that the average price will rise next month. When we combine the change from last month with the current SNLR, we believe that prices will rise next month in Toronto.
How will the condo market do?
If we look at just the condo market, we see that it increased in December, going up by 8% to 52%, which is effectively a 17% increase in one month. An SNLR of 52% means we would describe the condo market as a balanced market right now. In such a market, there is strong likelihood that the average price will remain flat (unchanged) in the next month. Take the month over month change and combine it with the current SNLR and there is a good chance that prices will remain flat next month in the condo segment of the Toronto market.
As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means. The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month. This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.
December saw the number of active listings in Toronto decrease, going down to 6,264 options for buyers as of the end of the month.
What does this predict?
The number of active listings in Toronto is our next predictor, so let’s review. We had 6,264 active listings on the market as of the end of December, which is approximately a 28% decrease compared to November when we had 8,662 listings on the market at the end of the month. On it’s own, this sort of change in the number of active listings would predict that prices would rise as the level of available options for buyers has decreased. Our second predictive stat therefore indicates that prices should rise in Toronto in January.
How will the condo market do?
In the condo segment of the market we had 4,102 active listings on the market as of the end of December, which is about a 23% decrease compared to November when we had 5,359 listings on the market at the end of the month. This change in the number of active listings predicts that prices should rise as the level of available condo apartments has gone down and any buyers will be competing over a smaller set of options on the market.
Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Toronto.
This statistic tracks how long it would take for all properties on the market in Toronto to sell if we stopped having any new listings. The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market. Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market, but Toronto is almost always significantly below that level.
December saw Toronto’s months of inventory increase, and it is now at 5.3 months.
What does this predict?
Let’s look at what our current months of inventory for Toronto predict what will happen to prices next month. The MOI as of the end of December was 5.3 months, which means that technically, the Toronto market is a buyer’s market as of right now. In general, if the MOI is going up, it is an indicator that prices will drop as there are fewer buyers than sellers in the market. As such, our increased level as well as the relatively high current months of inventory predicts that the average price in Toronto should drop in January. Given the other two stats indicate prices should rise, we have a bit of a mixed prediction but we’re still of the opinion prices will rise to some extent in Toronto in January.
How will the condo market do?
If we look at the condo market, the current months of inventory as of the end of December was 6.8 months, which means that the the condo segment of the Toronto market market is absolutely a buyer’s market as of right now. This stat therefore predicts that the average price in the condo segment of the Toronto market should drop in January. Just like the market as a whole, this is the only stat not predicting a price increase in January.
There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to understand what it all means.
December saw sales go down, prices go down, new listings go down.
- As we headed into the end of the year, November saw sales numbers start to drop and December continued that trend, going down to 1,174 sales in the city. We managed to ever so slightly exceed the total sales of 2023 in 2024, but with about 24,600 sales in Toronto in 2024, we’re only up about three hundred sales compared to 2023.
- December marked the second month in a row of declining prices in Toronto, going down to about $1,034,000 as of the end of the year. The market as a whole is down about 3% as of the end of 2024 when compared to the end of 2023, but surprisingly enough, the average price for a condo went up by about $12,000 during the course of the year, ending up at about $720,000 in December.
- The number of new listings also dropped in December, going down to about 1,800. While that is significantly less than we’ve been seeing this year, it is still quite busy for this time of year, as we typically see around 1,500 new listings hit the market in December each year.
December was noticeably slower and less competitive, with homes taking the longest to sell in more than two years.
- We hit a two-year high for the average days on market in December at 39 days, up eight days from the average in November. That’s just one day longer than our previous high of 38 days, which took place in January 2024, but considerably slower paced than we were seeing for most of the year.
- The average sale to list price in December went down to 98.3%, which is the lowest in all of 2024. Given it was 98.9% in November, it would have felt noticeably less competitive from the prior month.
We’re predicting that prices will rise in January, but it’s not 100% consistent.
- The sales to new listing ratio increase to 65% in December, inching into what is technically a seller’s market in the city. This predicts that prices should rise in January.
- The number of active listings dropped in December to just under 6,300 properties and while that is significantly fewer listings on the market than we’ve been seeing, it is still considerably more than we had a year ago in December 2023. Regardless, a dropping level of active listings predicts that prices should rise as buyer’s compete over fewer options.
- Finally, the months of inventory in the city rose to 5.3 months, which is a buyer’s market. This is contrary to our first two stats, as when the MOI increases it means there are fewer buyers than sellers in the market, which means prices should drop.
- Combine all three of these predictive stats together and it seems likely that the average price will rise in Toronto next month. While it is not 100% consistent, two out of the three predictive stats say Toronto should see prices rise in January. This is true for both the market as a whole, and for the condo market, where we’re predicting a rise in January for the average condo unit price.
We hope you found this review and analysis of Toronto helpful and check back in near the start of the next month for the latest update on what is happening in Toronto!