Toronto Market Analysis

The Toronto Real Estate Board tracks statistics using geographic boundaries called MLS areas.  These areas typically correspond quite closely to counties or regions.  In the case of Toronto,  it is pretty much exactly the City of Toronto.  With just over 2.7 million residents, Toronto includes Etobicoke, York (Old York, not to be confused with York Region), North York, East York and Scarborough, plus of course central Toronto.

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Toronto area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

  • What happened in the Toronto real estate market this past month?

  • How did it feel to be a buyer or seller in Toronto this past month?

  • What’s going to happen next with Toronto real estate?

Let’s get started.

  • What happened in Toronto in June, 2024?

The first half of the year ended with a lower average price, the first month since February where we haven’t seen it go up month over month.  June was also the first month so far this year where we saw the number of sales go down rather than up when compared to the previous month.  After hitting a two year high for new listings last month, June also saw a drop in the number of new listings, which is basically the only positive note for the month!

Let’s look at the specifics for what was going on in Toronto in our three big categories.

If we begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in June, 2024, we saw the number of sales drop to around 2,230 for the month.

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Sales in June 2024
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LESS sales in June than May
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LESS sales this June than last June 2023

What’s it mean?

When we review the number of sales in Toronto, we see that there were about 17% fewer sales in June than May. In actual number of transactions, we went from 2,698 sales down to 2,236, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 460 fewer sales in Toronto.  That weak showing in June means that the 1st half of 2024 had fewer sales than the first half of 2023, and January 2023 was the lowest number of sales in the past two years!  After seeing more sales each subsequent month so far this year, we saw it drop in June, a month that is often the busiest of the year.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

In the condo segment of the market, there were about 22% fewer sales in June than May. We went from 1,296 sales of condo units down to 1,014 sales, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 280 fewer sales of condo apartments in the city.  June was the 2nd month in a row of seeing fewer condo sales in Toronto, so not a great time to try to sell a unit.  The condo market was slower in the first half of 2024 than it was in 2023, so we’re not seeing much of a divergence in the condo market compared to the market as a whole.

In terms of prices, June, 2024 saw the average price for a home in Toronto drop to approximately $1,174,000.
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Average sale price in June 2024
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LOWER prices in June than May
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HIGHER prices this June than last June 2023

What’s it mean? 

While the level of activity in the market (i.e. the number of sales) is an important aspect, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Toronto in June? In May the average price was approximately $1,194,000 and June saw that go down by about 2% to $1,174,000. That works out to a difference of about $20,000 when compared to last month.  Crucially, this was the first month since January that we didn’t see the average price rise in the city.  Given last month (May 2024) saw the highest level of new listings in more than two years, it’s not particularly surprising that prices fell a bit, as buyers have tons of options right now.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

On the condo front, in May the average price was $767,200 and June saw that go down by approximately 1% to $763,148. That works out to a difference of about $4,000 when compared to last month.  When we take the overall market drop of about $20,000 into account, it tells us that the freehold market did worse in June than the condo market.  While that is of some comfort to would be condo sellers, we’ll point out that June is the first time this year that we haven’t seen condo prices increase.

Our final source for what’s been happening this month in the Toronto real estate market is the number of new listings that came on the market.  In June we saw that number go down, with 6,820 new listings in the city.

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New listings in June 2024
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LESS new listings in June than May
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MORE new listings in June than last June 2023

What’s it mean? 

Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Toronto in June, we see that we had 6,820 new listings, compared to 7,363 new listings in May. That’s approximately 7% fewer new listings, on a month over month basis.  Last month (May) was the most new listings hitting the market in Toronto in more than two years, so we’re glad to see a relatively sizeable (7%) drop in the number of new sellers on the market, particularly given sales were lower in June.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

For condo units, we had 3,823 new listings, compared to 4,134 new listings in May. That’s approximately 8% fewer new listings, on a month over month basis.  May was the highest level of new condo units listed in more than two years, so a slight drop isn’t exactly cause for celebration.  We have the highest level of condo units currently on the market as of the end of June in more than two years, with over 6,200 condo units for sale.

  • How’d it feel to be buying or selling in Toronto in June, 2024?

In order to get a sense of how it felt if you were buying or selling in Toronto, we can look at how long it took properties to sell in June as well as what sale price sellers received as a percentage of their list price. When we do so, we see that the average days on market saw a small change, going up by one day.  The sale to list price ratio however saw an significant drop, going down by almost 2%.  Combine those two stats and it would have felt a tiny bit slower but noticeably less competitive in June.

Let’s look in detail at the two specific stats that tell us how it felt to buy and sell in Toronto this month.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

In June we saw the length of time that it took for homes to sell go up to 20 days on average.

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on average to sell in June 2024
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LONGER to sell in June than May
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LONGER to sell this June than last June 2023

How did it feel?

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Toronto in June is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Toronto in June was 20 days, which is up one day from May, when it was 19 days. That’s a small change really, but nonetheless it would have felt a tiny bit slower paced if you were transacting in the market.  In both 2022 and 2023, June was significantly faster paced, with average days on market for properties of 15 days.  So while it wasn’t much of a difference from the market we’ve been experiencing this year, it was a slower paced June than is typical.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

When we look at just condo apartment units, the average days on market in the condo segment of the Toronto market in June was 26 days, which is up 2 days from May, when it was 24 days. So, how long it took to sell went up by about 8%, which is a relatively small change, but it would have felt slower paced if you were buying or selling a condo unit in the city.  Just like the market as a whole, this June was definitely slower than past June markets, as in both 2022 and 2023, the average length of time it took to sell a condo was 18 days, or more than a week quicker than now.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

In June, the average sale to list price ratio in the city decreased to 100.8%.

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Average sale to list price in June 2024
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LOWER ratio in June than May
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LOWER ratio this June than last June 2023

How did it feel?

If we want another indication of how it felt in Toronto, it’s the sale to list price ratio. This is how much over (or under) the list price buyers had to pay in order to buy a home. The average sale to list price ratio in Toronto in June was 100.8%, which is down from May when it was 102.6%. In exact percentages, there was a 1.8% drop in how much over list price sellers received, which means the market felt less competitive in June.  We’ve seen the sale to list price ratio in the 102% range since March of this year, so this marks a significant departure for the city and indicates many sellers are no longer holding back offers and listing below market value.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

When it comes to how it felt to be buying or selling a condo apartment in Toronto, the average sale to list price ratio in June was 98.6%, which is down from May when it was 99.1%. That works out to a half percentage drop in how much under list price condo unit sellers received, which means this segment of the market felt less competitive in June.  That’s the second lowest sale to list price ratio this year, after January when it was 97.7%, so condo sellers are starting to be negotiated down more these days.

  • What’s going to happen in Toronto in July, 2024?

In order to predict what is coming next for Toronto’s real estate market, we can look at three predictive stats, which we go into in detail below. When we look at the big picture about what the current number of active listings, sale to new list ratio and months of inventory predict for sale prices, there’s a strong indication across all three predictive stats that the average price will drop again in Toronto in July.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the three predictive stats we have for what comes next in the Toronto market.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

  • If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
  • Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
  • Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

In June, we saw the SNLR in Toronto decrease to 32.8%, which means we’re in a buyer’s market right now in the city.

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Sales to new listing ratio in June 2024
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LOWER ratio in June than May
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LOWER ratio this June than last June 2023

What does this predict?

The sales to new list ratio (or SNLR) decreased in June, going down by 4% to 33%, which is effectively a 11% decrease in one month. This is not a huge change but it is likely to impact prices next month as we go from a low SNLR to an even lower SNLR. The current SNLR of 33% means we would definitely describe Toronto as a buyer’s market. In such a market, there is good likelihood that the that the average price will drop next month. When we combine the drop from last month with the current SNLR, there is good chance that prices will drop next month in Toronto.

How will the condo market do?

If we look at just the condo market, we see that the sale to new listing ratio decreased in June, going down by 5% to 27%, which is effectively a 15% decrease in one month.  This is the same situation as the market as a whole, but to a greater extent.  We’re now within a couple of percent of the lowest sale to listing ratio in the city for condo units in two years, which was in September 2023 when it hit 24.1%.  This stat dropping like this, and the low level it is currently at, definitely predicts that condo prices should go down in Toronto in July.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

June saw the number of active listings in Toronto increase, going up to 9,655 options for buyers as of the end of the month.

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Active listings in June 2024
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MORE active listings in June than May
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MORE active listings this June than last June 2023

What does this predict?

The number of active listings in Toronto is our next predictor, so let’s review. We had 9,655 active listings on the market as of the end of June, which is approximately a 6% increase compared to May when we had 9,081 listings on the market at the end of the month.  If that sounds like a lot, it’s because it is!  May was our two-year high for active listings in Toronto and then June added another 574 options!  Both in terms of an increasing level of inventory and the fact that it is so high means that this stat absolutely predicts a lower average price in the city in July.

How will the condo market do?

In the condo segment of the market we had 6,217 active listings on the market as of the end of June, which is about a 7% increase compared to May when we had 5,823 listings on the market at the end of the month. Just like the market as a whole, this makes June 2024 the month with the highest level of condo units for sale in more than two years.  This increase in the number of active listings, as well as the high levels of inventory, predicts that prices will also drop in the condo segment of the Toronto market in July.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Toronto.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all properties on the market in Toronto to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market, but Toronto is almost always significantly below that level.

June saw Toronto’s months of inventory increase, and it is now at 4.3 months.

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Months of inventory as of June 2024
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MORE inventory in June than May
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MORE inventory this June than last June 2023

What does this predict?

Let’s look at what our current months of inventory for Toronto predict what will happen to prices next month. The MOI as of the end of June was 4.3 months, which means that the Toronto market is in a buyer’s market as of right now. We hit our two year high for months of inventory in fall of last year, with September, October and November all seeing 4.4 months of inventory.  We’re very close to that level and it predicts that prices should drop in July just on that basis.  In general, if the MOI is going up, it is an indicator that prices will drop as there are fewer buyers than sellers in the market. Similarly, if the MOI is going down, we typically expect prices to rise as as more buyers enter the market. The combination of a strong increase (almost one month additional inventory month over month) in the MOI and the near record high means prices should drop in the city next month.

How will the condo market do?

If we look at the condo market, the current months of inventory as of the end of June was 6.1 months, which is actually the highest in more than two years!  It was a 1.6 month increase from May to June, which means that sellers are pouring into the market at the same time as buyers step back.  It means that the condo segment is very much in a buyer’s market right now and we definitely are predicting that the average price in the condo segment of the Toronto market will drop in July.

  • What’s it all mean?

There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to understand what it all means.

Prices went down for the first time in months, sales dropped and so did the number of new listings .

  • The number of sales went down from about 2,700 sales in May to a bit over 2,200 in June.  Those are relatively low numbers, but more crucially, after five months of higher sales each month, we saw a drop for the first time this year.   We saw over 20% fewer sales this June than last June (2023), so it was not a typical June this year.
  • The average price dropped by about $20K in Toronto, going down to about $1.1793M on average.  After four months of higher prices each month despite tons of active listings, Toronto finally caved and we saw prices drop in the city on average.  We’re up about $20K compared to this time last year.
  • After seeing our number of new listings hit a two-year high of over 7,300 properties coming onto the market last month, we finally saw a lower number of new listings compared to the previous month.  While that is a good sign, we still had over 6,800 new listings, so the drop in number of new listings basically equalled the drop of sales .

The market sped up a tiny bit but it definitely felt more competitive.

  • Our days on market in June went up one day, to 20 days on average, which is two days faster than in March.  We are officially selling homes a week slower than our two year low, which was in May 2022, when it took 13 days on average for properties to sell in the city.  The one day slower market would not have felt noticeable if you were buying or selling, but it is five days slower than is typical for June, as both June 2022 and June 2023 saw 15 days on average for days on market.
  • The average sale to list price went down by 1.8% in June compared to May, ending three months of sellers getting more than 2% over their asking price on average.  That’s a sizeable enough change that it would have been noticeable to buyers and sellers transacting in Toronto in June, and it definitely would have felt a bit more competitive.  Our take on it is that it is the result of fewer sellers listing at below market value and holding back offers to a specific date before selling “over” asking price.

We’re predicting that prices will absolutely drop in the city in July.

  • The sales to new listing ratio of 33% is down about 4% from May, and while that is not a massive change, it saw an already low SNLR dip even lower.  In comparison, in June 2022 it was 40% and in June 2023 it was 48.5%, so we’re seeing far fewer buyers than sellers this June than is typical.  It strongly suggests that prices will drop in Toronto in July.  The condo market saw an even lower SNLR of 26.5%, so condo prices will lead the drop in July.
  • The number of active listings as of the end of June went up to over 9,600 properties for sale in Toronto.  About 6,200 of those properties are condo units, so freehold homes remain less available than condo properties.  Nonetheless, June saw the highest level of active listings in more than two years, with another 574 options added on this month to the previous record from last month.  More active listings and the highest level of active listings in two years absolutely predicts that prices will drop in the following month, so July should definitely see a price drop.
  • The months of inventory jumped almost a full month in June compared to May, going from 3.4 months in May to 4.3 months in June. That puts Toronto into a buyer’s market according to this stat (as well as the above two stats) and reflects the fact that we have lots of active listings compared to sales taking place.  The condo market hit a  two year high of 6.1 months, up a month and a half worth of inventory from May, when it was 4.5 months.  This stat indicates that both the market as a whole, and the condo market specifically, should drop in price next month.
  • Combine all three it seems very clear that prices should drop in Toronto in July on average, with the condo market likely to see a larger price drop than we expect to see with freehold homes.

Stay tuned for our next update on what is happening in Toronto, and what is coming next!