As each month passes and we see less than stellar numbers of sales in Toronto and the GTA, it is clear that buyers are continuing to sit on the sidelines.  A couple of days ago we saw another drop in the overnight rate by the Bank of Canada, but we’re sceptical as to whether it will push many buyers off the fence.

The real question we’ve been debating on the team is how low is enough?  If buyers are waiting until prices drop by “enough”, what exactly does “enough” look like?

To answer this question, we need to know where we’re at in terms of market price fluctuations, as we’re clearly not at “enough” as of yet.  We did a review of the market data for the past two years (well, 26 months actually) to look at where we’re at now – and how that compared to the highest and lowest prices in the market.  We did it for Toronto as well as Peel, Durham, Halton, York, Dufferin and Simcoe, so you can see exactly what’s going on in each market we cover.  Two of those markets just saw the lowest average sale price in more than two years, so it’s definitely worth asking how low is enough?

Let’s get started.

Dufferin – More than $200K might be enough…

The highest average sale price in the past two years in Dufferin was in Oct ’23, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,113,000.

Compare that against May ’24, when Dufferin saw our lowest average sale price of about $848,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $265,000.

Our current average price of $926,475 is the 10th lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 17th highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that it is reasonably good timing to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re up $77,000 from our two year low, and down $187,000 from our two year high.

If you’re waiting for it to go down more than the $187K drop from the height we already saw, then you may be waiting a long time.

Durham – Come on buyers, we’re at the two year low!

The highest average sale price in the past two years in Durham was in May ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $951,000.

Compare that against Aug ’25, when Durham saw our lowest average sale price of about $860,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $91,000.

Our current average price of $860,071 is actually the lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 26th highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.  Wait, that’s not really positive.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that it is the best time in more than two years to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re at our two year lowest average price, and down $91,000 from our two year high.

If $91K, and the lowest average price in more than two years isn’t enough, perhaps buyers in Durham are waiting for a nice round $100K off?

Halton – Buyers want more than $167K off it appears…

The highest average sale price in the past two years in Halton was in Dec ’23, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,304,000.

Compare that against Jul ’25, when Halton saw our lowest average sale price of about $1,137,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $167,000.

Our current average price of $1,211,510 is the 8th lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 19th highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that it is reasonably good timing to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re up $74,000 from our two year low, and down $92,000 from our two year high.

While the Halton market has recovered significantly from it’s two year low, buying now means you still get $92K off the height of the market.  If $167,000 wasn’t enough through, will $92K be enough?  Likely not.

Peel – Take the $110K discount already!

The highest average sale price in the past two years in Peel was in Apr ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,090,000.

Compare that against Jul ’25, when Peel saw our lowest average sale price of about $972,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $118,000.

Our current average price of $980,726 is the 2nd lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 25th highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.  Well, that’s better than 26th we suppose.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that the timing is great to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re up $8,000 from our two year low, and down $110,000 from our two year high.

While we aren’t at the lowest price of the last two years in Peel, we aren’t too far off from it and buying now means you’re getting a $110K discount compared to buying at our two year high. Pretty good deal Peel!

Simcoe – Just $20K off our two year low!

The highest average sale price in the past two years in Simcoe was in Mar ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $861,000.

Compare that against Nov ’23, when Simcoe saw our lowest average sale price of about $735,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $126,000.

Our current average price of $755,708 is the 3rd lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 24th highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that the timing is great to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re up $20,000 from our two year low, and down $105,000 from our two year high.

By all accounts, taking over $100K off the price of something is a great deal, so hopefully Simcoe buyers get off the fence before prices rise back up again.

York – Seriously now, it’s time to buy!

The highest average sale price in the past two years in York was in Jun ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,393,000.

Compare that against Aug ’25, when York saw our lowest average sale price of about $1,185,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $208,000.

Our current average price of $1,185,546 is actually the lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, uh..yeah, there isn’t really a way to spin that in a postive light.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that it is the best time in more than two years to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re at our two year lowest average price, and down $208,000 from our two year high.

When you combine over $200,000 off the height of the market with it being the lowest average price in more than two years, we are strongly recommending that York buyers get buying!

Toronto – A quarter million wasn’t enough?  Come on people.

The highest average sale price in the past two years in August was in May ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,199,000.

Compare that against Jan ’24, when August saw our lowest average sale price of about $952,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $247,000.

Our current average price of $1,018,461 is the 5th lowest in the last couple of years. If you’d rather look at things in a more positive light, right now is the 22nd highest price we’ve seen in the last 26 months.

The verdict?  For buyers, our current average price means that the timing is great to move forward with a purchase.  As of right now, we’re up $66,000 from our two year low, and down $181,000 from our two year high.

If Toronto buyers have been sitting on the sidelines despite nearly a quarter million dollar drop in the average price, we don’t have high hopes that the current $181K discount from the two year high will be enough to entice them to make a move.

As a bonus for Torontonians, we also looked at just the condo market in the city.

The highest average sale price for a condo unit in the past two years was in May ’24, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $775,000.

Compare that against Aug ’25, when we saw condo prices hit the lowest average sale price of about $670,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices fluctuate by about $105,000.

Our current average price of $670,829 for a condo unit is actually the lowest in the last couple of years.  Condo buyers, get moving!

Those are some pretty hefty discounts off of the two year market highs for average price, but buyers are largely still sitting on the sidelines.  If you’re wondering about making a move, then we do this sort of analysis at the neighbourhood, street and building level, so get in touch with us to help you figure out timing!

In real estate, people love to try to time the market.

In Toronto, we saw the average prices for properties hit an all time high in early spring of 2022.  February, March and April of that year saw huge levels of sales and correspondingly high prices.  How high you ask?

• The average price for a detached home was $2.1M
• The average price for a semi-detached house was $1.54M
• The average price for a townhouse was $1.12M
• The average price for a condo apartment was $830K

We haven’t reached those heights since, with significant fluctuations in average price since that time.  We often get asked when prices are going to drop and the short answer is they already did.  As we’ve not seen higher prices for any of the home types above since spring of 2022, real estate is in fact cheaper than it was back at that point.

The longer answer to the question of when prices are going to drop is that it all depends on what you’re comparing against.  The year over year average price for a detached house in Toronto is down by 6.5%, so by that metric, it’s definitely down.  In fact, for both Toronto as well as the GTA regions, all housing types are cheaper now than they were a year ago.

We pulled the data so we could tell you exactly when the highest price took place for each housing type, as well as the lowest price since that point, plus the current average price.  It reveals some very surprising truths about the market.  Let’s get into it!

Detached homes are down 29%

In February, 2022, the average price for a detached home in Toronto hit an all time high of $2.106M.  Less than a year later, the price had dropped by 29% to $1.502M.  That’s a drop of over $600K in less than one year!

Since then, we’ve seen lots of fluctuations between that range and our current average sale price as of June, 2025, is $1.641M.  That means as of right now, we’re down 22% from our all-time high for average price for a detached house in the city.  If you think you missed the boat on buying the most desired home type in Toronto though, you’d be wrong.  Our current average price is just 9% higher than that low point we saw in January, 2023.  While it would have been great to time the market exactly and buy when they were $139,000 cheaper on average than now, you’re still saving $465K compared to their highest point.

Semi-detached houses are down $433,000

If we look at the market segment for semi-detached houses, we hit our all time high of $1.538M in March, 2022.  Just nine months after that high point, prices had dropped to $1.105M, meaning the average price for a semi went down 28%, or about $433,000!

Our current average price for a semi-detached house in Toronto is $1.278M, which means that it now costs you about $173,000 more to buy one these days.  That’s 16% higher than the lowest recent price, but you’d still save about $260K by avoiding buying back in early 2022.

Townhouses cost 15% less now

Turning to townhouses, the highest prices ever took place in February 2022, when they reached $1.121M on average.  The current price for a townhouse as of June 2025 is $957,605, which means they are still trading at about a 15% discount from that highest ever price.

The lowest level for average price since that all time high took place in December 2022, when it dropped to about $879,000.  That’s down 22% from their all time high and prices for townhomes haven’t recovered as fully as they did for detached and semi-detached houses.  In fact, you can buy a townhouse now for only about $78,000 more (on average) than their lowest point.

Condo apartments are just up $17K from their low point

Finally, the most affordable option in the city, condo apartments, remain within reach for entry level buyers.  The highest ever price for condo units took place in April 2022, when it hit $830K on average.  It took until September 2024 for us to hit the low point since then, when the average price for a condo unit in the city was $691,000.

Our current average price for condo apartments is about $708,000, which means we’re just $17,000 more expensive now compared to the lowest point in recent history.  It is absolutely a good time to buy a condo based solely on this price history!

If you want us to do a dive into the changes in your particular area and housing type, we’d be happy to do so.  Get in touch with us to get the ball rolling!