If you read the newspaper headlines and follow real estate news on your feed, you may have the impression that now is a terrible time to own a condo.  That perception is driven by the fact that many investors as well as would-be investors have decided to realize their profits (or cut their losses) and put their condo up for sale.

It’s hard to argue against the idea that is a bad time to sell a condo, as over supply – particularly of the one bedroom or studio apartment type – has put downward pressure on condo prices for most of the last couple of years.

While we’d agree it is a challenging time to sell condo apartments, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is a bad time to own a condo unit.  Condo apartments make up 65% of the housing stock in Toronto, and given Toronto has a population of around 3.2 million people, there over two million people who own condos in the city.  With our population density and price of real estate, condo units have been (and remain) the lowest priced way to get onto the property ladder in Toronto.  Yes, condo prices have dropped in the past couple of years, but that is also true for the market as a whole.

In May, 2024, we saw the average price for a condo unit in Toronto hit its two year high, coming in at about $776,000.  Over the course of a bit more than a year, we saw it drop down to a two year low of $673,000.  As of the start of December 2025, our average price for a condo is now $698,000.  As of right now, we’re up $25,000 from our two year low, and down $77,000 from our two year high.

For the market as a whole, the highest average sale price in the past two years in Toronto was also in May 2024, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,199,000.  Compare that against January 2024, where Toronto saw our lowest average sale price of about $952,000.  That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices for the market as a whole fluctuate by about $247,000.

Our current average price of $1,060,000 means that we’re up $108,000 from our two year low, and down $139,000 from our two year high.

The numbers show that owning a condo right now is better than it has been in the worst of our recent market shifts (to the tune of about $25K), so we’d say condo owners are doing OK.

If it is a bad time to sell a condo, an OK time to own a condo, what sort of timing is it for buying one?  With a couple of caveats, we think right now (December 2025) is a great time to buy a condo.  Here’s our reasoning.

Desperate times call for…taking what you can get.

While seasonal cycles may be less reliable in our real estate market in the past number of years, we still encounter a winter slow down every year.  In 2023, 2024 and 2025, October was the last hurrah in terms of number of sales for the remainder of the year.  We always see fewer sales, lower prices and less new listings as we head towards the end of the year.

Sellers who have been trying to get rid of a condo unit for weeks or months view the upcoming winter months with dread.  They know that showings will slow to a trickle and carrying costs will continue to mount.  If it is an investment property that has been vacant for more than six months this year, then they are also likely facing a 3% vacancy tax from the City of Toronto.

Put bluntly, the end of the year (and the first month of a new year) are excellent opportunities for buyers.  If you can close quickly, your agent can put lots of pressure on a seller to have them accept a much lower offer than they would have even considered a few months ago.

Renting isn’t looking so hot right now.

When getting a good sale price is hard to do, condo owners who aren’t in need of the capital in the property can choose to rent it out.  This has traditionally been the lifeline for those condo owners who aren’t able to get the price they want or need in order to move forward with a sale.

The challenge with that approach right now is two-fold.  First, winter is not just a slow time to sell properties – it is also a difficult time to rent a place.  Whether it is the holidays, the logistical challenges of physically moving in cold, snowy weather or the short days, winter is the hardest season to rent a property.

The second challenge has to do with the state of our condo rental market, which has dropped noticeably for condo landlords.  Asking rents in Toronto are down 2.9% year-over-year to an average of $2,592 and the City of Toronto’s secondary condo rents fell 3.8% year-over-year in Q3 2025 (to about $2,714 for a 675-sf unit).  As stories of the condo market troubles proliferated, a number of potential sellers of condo units decided to keep them and rent them out.  As a result, competition has intensified as supply has grown and tenants have more choice.

On the new purpose-built rental side of the equation, professional rental companies have begun offering incentives such as a free month rent or parking to attract tenants.  This has further impacted the resale rental condo market, which is typically older than the purpose-built rentals.

If we combine all of the above, it means that the rental option is not that desirable for a number of condo sellers.  This is in addition to the fact that some condo owners urgently need the capital in the property due to financial issues and cannot afford to keep the unit even if they can rent it out.

The future’s so bright, I’ve got to wear shades.

We have a bad habit in Toronto where we assume that whatever is happening to real estate will continue to happen forever.  If prices are going up, then they will always go up.  If properties aren’t appreciating, then they will be worth the same in five years as right now.  Given the price drops we’ve seen over the past couple of years, most of Toronto seems to be falling into the “whatever it’s worth now, it will be worth less later” trap.

The reality is that real estate markets fluctuate and that the trend for prices move right along with it.

Take a look at the below chart which shows the average price for a property in Toronto over the past two years.  This includes both freehold as well as condo units, but the same fluctuations occur in the condo segment.  Prices go up and down on a month to month basis and while the average always creeps higher over time, we have seen periods of two to four years of lack of growth before prices increase.

While prices may fluctuate, when the perception is that prices are going to go down, buyers hold off on making a purchase.  When that perception continues and economic issues can further uncertainty, we end up with a situation where the number of buyers is greatly exceeded by the number of sellers.  This has arguably been felt across the entire Toronto real estate market, but it has most strongly impacted the condo segment.

As a result of this perception, we started seeing a slow down in 2022 of the sales of new condo projects.  They began to decline in mid-2022 and by the following year, that slow down had worsened.   Urbanation reports that 2023 condo construction starts fell 45% in 2023 compared to 2022, and the second half of 2023 was down 72% year-over-year, meaning far fewer projects actually broke ground.  By 2024, the slowdown became severe and Urbanation reported that condo apartment construction starts dropped 50% to a 25-year low.   CMHC says 2024 condo-unit cancellations in Toronto were more than five times the number in a typical year (such as 2022) and Urbanation’s latest survey counts 32 condo projects cancelled since the start of 2024 plus 20 more that are on hold or in receivership.

Things have not improved in 2025, and the new-build condo market has posted multi-decade lows, with the lowest sales since 1995, with only 2,176 units sold year-to-date, which is a 28-year low.  Cancellations set a new record this year, with 18 projects (about 4,040 units) having been cancelled completely.

It takes three to four years for a condo project to go from ground-breaking to occupancy, which means that our 2023 slow down will result in 2026/2027 seeing very few new condo projects hitting the market.  Over the course of the next couple of years, we’re predicting that the current state of the condo market will reverse, with fewer condo units available for sale as the lack of new inventory means older resale inventory is basically the only option for condo buyers.

If we’re conservative, we would say that 2027 or 2028 is when resale condo prices will begin rising.  As buyer sentiment shifts based on the scarcity of available units, new construction projects will begin selling out again, which means by 2030 or later, new condo projects will be coming onto the market and prices will steady out.

In the very short-term (December 2025, January and February 2026), there are great opportunities to buy a resale condo from a seller who has experienced few showings and little interest.  Throughout the course of 2026, further opportunities will become available, driven by economic news and the strength (or weakness) of our economy.  In 2027, the lack of new condo projects coming on the market will start to shift buyer sentiment and bargains will disappear.

If you’re thinking about buying a condo and have a three to five year timeframe of holding it, then we’d love to help you get a great bargain – or two!  If that sounds good, please reach out to us so we can show you specific opportunities we’re seeing out there!

Cover Photo Courtesy of Xavieras Design Build

If you look up the expression “belle of the ball”, here’s what the good folks at Merriam-Webster dictionary say it means – “the most beautiful and popular woman at a dance, party, etc., as in, she was the belle of the ball.”

Given our focus on real estate, it shouldn’t be a surprise that when we use that expression, it’s about being the most attractive and popular property on the market – at least to a certain type of buyer.

When we say a certain type of buyer, it’s the buyer for which the home in question has the highest possible value.  After all, no property is suitable for all uses and all buyers, so it is critical to identify where the property has its highest and best use.

If you think of a residential home on a busy street, surrounded by commercial offices and stores, that home’s highest and best use is likely the same as its neighbours, namely a commercial use.  It can continue to be a residential home, but any buyer who wants just a residential home will view the location and level of traffic as a negative rather than a positive.

In most cases, the highest and best use of a property stays constant for long periods of time.  A rural property zoned for agriculture use isn’t suddenly a great option for a high rise office tower.  It is possible, over time, for the character and zoning of an area to change though, and when that happens, it may bring about a change in the highest and best use for properties in that area.

While such changes can take a long time to come about, shifts in the current use can occur in a much quicker timeframe.  A perfect example of that is when we see a change in the highest and best style or type of residential home in a neighbourhood.  Consider a bungalow or small home sitting on a good size lot in an increasingly in demand neighbourhood.  While the home on the lot may have been the most suitable when it was built, current trends may dictate a larger home, with a more open concept layout, higher ceilings and updated design style.

Take a drive through an established neighbourhood in a good part of your city and we bet you’ll see examples of in-fill properties, where the existing homes have either been torn down completely, or substantially renovated and expanded.

We often work with seller clients who are in the fortunate situation of seeing their street and neighbourhood grow in popularity over time.  As that happens and homes are sold, you start to see a shift in the size and style of homes in the area, with smaller, single storey homes replaced with larger, two (or even three) storey homes.

When such new, custom build homes are sold, they fetch a considerable premium over the smaller, older stock of homes in the area.  If you’re seeing that happen on your street, does it mean that the value of your home has also skyrocketed?  The answer depends on a number of factors but at its core, it’s all about the numbers.  If the price to buy the existing home, plus the anticipated cost of rebuilding or building an addition, are equal to or less than what a newly built or renovated home in the area sells for now, then a builder isn’t the best buyer for your home.

If you think that your place might be a good fit for a builder, let’s review what information can be shared that will make the case!

Location

• Emphasize the neighborhood’s key strengths—close to top schools, transit options, shopping, parks, and other amenities.
• Highlight any recent or upcoming neighborhood developments that improve value.
• Mention the quietness, privacy, or unique aspects of the street or area.

Land Characteristics

• Provide precise details on lot size, dimensions, and shape.
• Share recent surveys or property documents that show boundaries clearly.
• Note if the lot is mostly flat or gently sloped, which can reduce construction complexity.
• Mention any existing structures and their condition (if demolition will be required).

Utilities and Infrastructure

• Confirm the availability of city water, sewer, electricity, gas, and high-speed internet hookups.
• Note the ease of access to these utilities and any recent upgrades.
• Describe road access, street width, and parking options—especially important in a dense city like Toronto.
• Highlight any convenient driveway access or alleyways.

Legal and Regulatory Factors

• Share your knowledge of the zoning classification and permitted uses.
• Inform the builder of any easements, rights-of-way, or restrictions on the property.
• If your property has heritage designation or is in a regulated conservation area, disclose this upfront.
• Provide details on previous permitting history if available.

Environmental Concerns

• Share any flood risk assessments or environmental reports.
• Reassure the builder if the property is outside floodplains or hazardous zones.
• Mention noise levels and air quality if you know them.

Budget and Cost Implications

• Be transparent about your asking price and any flexibility.
• Mention if you have recent quotes for demolition or site preparation.
• Share info about any municipal development charges or fees that the builder might expect.

Design Compatibility

• Describe how the lot’s size and shape can accommodate various home designs.
• If possible, share any conceptual designs or approvals you’ve received.
• Highlight potential for maximizing natural light or outdoor spaces like balconies or rooftop patios.
• Mention any neighborhood design guidelines or restrictions that may affect construction.

Resale Value

• Share recent comparable sales in the area to support the property’s value.
• Highlight the strong market demand for custom homes or renovations in your neighborhood.
• Point out features that increase appeal, like proximity to transit or unique lot characteristics.

As you can tell, there are a lot of things that can be provided to a builder to make the case for your home being a great option for a custom home build.

If the list of information to provide seems a bit daunting, don’t worry, we’re here to help!  We regularly work with clients who want to explore this possibility and whenever we list a home that is suitable for a new build, we develop a package specifically focused on custom home builders.  If that sounds like the sort of approach you’d like to see in the sale of your home, then get in touch with us to discuss it further!

The meaning of the idiom “a level playing field” is a situation that is fair to everyone, where everyone gets the same opportunity and a situation where everyone has an equal and fair chance of succeeding.  It apparently originated in the late 1900s when then was unfair advantage given to one team in a field game if there was a slope on the field.

While providing a level playing field is supposed to mean a fair competition, where no advantage is shown to one side, it is regularly used now in situations where we’re tilting the odds in favour of one side of a situation.

The Ontario government made an announcement on October 25, 2022 about amendments to the Non-Resident Speculation tax and immediately we saw a number of pundits talking about how this is levelling the playing field in real estate.  It’s a funny reaction to one group having an increased, additional tax on real estate purchases that other groups don’t incur when they buy.  If you’re a non-resident looking to buy in Ontario, it likely felt like the playing field just tilted in favour of residents, not towards a more level field.

As of October 25, 2022, the NRST rate in Ontario will be increased from 20% to 25% and continues to apply to all parts of the province. The NRST applies to the transfer of “designated land”, which is considered land that contains at least one and no more than six single family residences.

Back in March, the government raised the NRST from 15% to 20%. The new increase to 25% makes this the highest provincial tax in Canada that exists to deter foreign speculation in the housing market.

We ran the numbers of the costs to buy in Ontario if you’re a resident or a non-resident and thought we’d share it here.  There are a few different taxes that could apply depending on the type of property, the location of the property, the history of the purchaser and where the purchaser resides, so it can get a bit complicated.  We explain how it works and run the numbers for the different situations so it’s clear.  Well, clearer.

As of September, 2022, the average price for a property in Ontario is approximately $836,000.  We’ll use that as our proxy for our various calculations on the purchase.

There are four possible taxes that can be incurred when you buy residential real estate in Ontario.  Let’s review.

Buyer Tax #1 Provincial Land Transfer Tax

The first tax applies to ALL residential purchases in Ontario and is the Provincial Land Transfer Tax.

The tax is calculated on a sliding scale based on the purchase price, and for single family residences, there are thresholds at $55,000, $250,000 and $400,000.

There is a first-time home buyer’s refund of up to $4,000 on this tax that can be claimed once.  While there is a scale for this refund as well, if the home being purchased is over $368,000, then the maximum refund of $4,000 will be available.

You can find a LTT calculator here on the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board site.

Based on the September, 2022 average price for a property in Ontario of $836,300, the Provincial Land Transfer Tax payable by all purchasers is $13,201.  If you’re a first-time home buyer who has never owned real estate before, that will be reduced by $4,000 to $9,201.

Buyer Tax #2 Toronto Land Transfer Tax

The second possible tax on residential purchases in Ontario is the Toronto Land Transfer Tax.

It is just like the Provincial Land Transfer Tax but is paid to the City of Toronto for purchases that take place within the municipal boundaries of Toronto.  It is in addition to the Provincial Land Transfer Tax and is calculated exactly the same way, with the same tax payable.  Put simply, whatever you pay for the Provincial Land Transfer Tax, you will pay the same amount again to the City of Toronto if you are buying within the Toronto boundaries.

If you are a first-time home buyer, you can also receive a refund from the City of Toronto to be applied against the Toronto Land Transfer Tax.  The amount for the City of Toronto LTT refund is slightly higher than the Ontario LTT first-time buyer refund.  In Toronto, you can receive a refund of up to $4,475 against the Toronto LTT.

Based on the September, 2022 average price for a property in Ontario of $836,300, the Toronto Land Transfer Tax payable by all purchasers who buy within the municipal boundaries is $13,201.  If you’re a first-time home buyer who has never owned real estate before, that will be reduced by $4,475 to $8,726.

Buyer Tax #3 Harmonized Sales Tax

The third possible tax on residential purchases in Ontario is the Harmonized Sales Tax, or HST.

HST can be charged on residential purchases if it is a new or mostly new (over 90% new construction) home in Ontario.  While the HST calculation is straight-forward (13% of the purchase price is added to the cost of buying it), there are a few rebates that make it significantly more complex.

The HST New Housing Rebate is comprised of a federal rebate is equal to 36% of the federal portion of GST/HST, to a maximum of $6,300 and the Ontario provincial rebate, which is equal to 75% of the Ontario portion of GST/HST, to a maximum of $24,000.

Qualifying for the rebate can be challenging and depends on a number of factors such as type of property purchased, intended use (primary residence or investment use) and more.

If you are purchasing a new build in Ontario, always consult with your real estate lawyer to determine the tax consequences of your purchase and whether you qualify for any rebates.

For our purposes here, a home of over $450,000 will not receive a rebate on the federal portion (5%) and given the average price in Ontario is $836,300, that means that the $41,815 of federal HST tax will be an additional cost on the new build purchase.

The $66,904 (8% of $836,900) Ontario HST component may qualify for a rebate of up to $24,000, meaning that any new build will incur an Ontario HST that nets out to an additional $42,904 on the purchase.

If you are buying for investment purposes, you may be able to qualify for a New Residential Rental Property Rebate.  Just like with the HST New Housing Rebate, this rental property rebate will not apply on the federal component of the HST as our purchase price of $836,300 is over the maximum purchase price of $450,000.

The provincial component of the HST may qualify for a rebate of 75% of the HST paid, up to a maximum rebate of $24,000 per qualifying rental unit.  It is possible for both residents and non-residents to qualify for this, so based on our price of $836,300, that means we hit the maximum of $24,000 for this rebate.

When we put it all together, based on the September, 2022 average price for a property in Ontario of $836,300, the net HST you will pay on top of that price, if that property is a new build, is $42,904 in HST.  If you’re a non-resident, you would have to be renting the property out for a minimum of a year to qualify for the $24,000 rebate on the provincial portion, otherwise you’d have to add that on top of the $42,904.  Given that such a buyer is a non-resident, we will assume they are buying it as an investment and will rent it out, thus receiving the $24,000 rebate just like a resident buyer.

Buyer Tax #4 Non-Resident Speculation Tax

The fourth possible tax on residential purchases in Ontario is the Non-Resident Speculation Tax, or NRST.

The Non-Resident Speculation tax (NRST) is often colloquially called the Foreign Buyer’s Tax, so don’t be confused and think they are two separate things.  In Ontario, we call it the NRST and in British Columbia it’s known as the Foreign Buyer’s Tax, but in either case it’s a tax on non-residents.

As of October 25, 2022, the NRST in Ontario is a straight-forward 25% of the purchase price.  If you aren’t a Canadian citizen, a Permanent Resident or a Protected Person, you owe an additional 25% of the purchase price.  It applies to the transfer of “designated land”, which is considered land that contains at least one and no more than six single family residences.

Based on the September, 2022 average price for a property in Ontario of $836,300, the NRST payable by all non-resident purchasers is a whopping $209,075.

So, how level is that field now?

When we look at the four possible taxes on the average purchase price for a single-family residential property in Ontario, we see that the field is in fact clearly tilted in favour of residents versus foreign buyers.

While there are four possible taxes, the only one that doesn’t treat residents and non-residents equally is (naturally) the Non-Resident Speculation Tax (NRST).  On the average purchase of a property in Ontario of about $836,000, a foreign buyer will need to have $1,058,000 available to cover the closing costs for the home.  That’s an extra $222,000, comprised of the NRST and the Land Transfer Tax.

If the foreign buyer is interested in buying a new home and renting it out to a tenant, they will need to be prepared to add another $43,000 for the HST tax on the property.  If they want to buy that new home in Toronto, then the Toronto Land Transfer Tax adds another $13K onto the funds required.

When all is said and done, if a non-resident decides to buy a new construction property in Toronto and they’re lucky to find one at the average Ontario price of $836,000, they’re looking at over 33% in taxes on top of their purchase price.  When you add that $278,000 to the base purchase price, a non-resident  needs over $1.1M to buy that $836,000 home.

While not many people in the world would think Ontario real estate is a bargain, if you’re a non-resident considering buying in the province, the list price looks like a positive steal.    If you or someone you know is considering buying in Toronto or the surrounding areas, it pays to work with agents who understand the true cost of the deal.  Get in touch with us and we’ll help make sure it’s the right move.