Whether it is a hot market or a cool market, a fast market or a slow market, a buyer’s market or a seller’s market, one thing is constant – people love talking about what’s coming next in real estate.

At this time of year, the big topic of conversation is of course the fall market.  For those of you not familiar with the term, it references the (perceived) bump in sales and prices that take place in the fall of each year in Toronto and our GTA markets.

We put perceived in parentheses above as there is a very real question as to whether we actually see fall markets consistently any more.  In years past – or at least decades past – it was genuinely something that we saw happen, with a jump in the number of new listings, sales and typically a bump in the average price as well.

The common thinking was that after enjoying the summer, everyone got back to work and started seeing properties and making moves.

We pulled the number of sales and the average price for the GTA (including Toronto) over the past five years so that we could identify any trends and predict what will happen in Fall 2025.  Let the prognosticating begin!

Such pretty data.

We pulled the data provided by the good folks at TRREB and looked at what happened in terms of number of sales and average price over the past five years.

Here’s the dataset.

Colour coded numbers are pretty, but let’s talk about what they mean.

Most of the time, sales go down in the fall.

When we look at the data for number of sales each fall, we see that more times than not, August to November see the level of sales drop.

Specifically, 4/5 times saw August with lower sales than July and that also happened in August of this year.  September is slower for sales than August 3/5 times in the past five years, and the same holds true for October, which is slower than September 3/5 times.  November has always (5/5 times) been slower than October since 2020.

While the actual number of sales is heavily dependent on what is happening in the economy, it seems safe to say that expecting a jump in sales in the fall is not a smart move.  More times than not, the fall sees a slow down each month from the prior month’s activity.

If things aren’t busier in the fall, is it when prices jump?  The short answer, not always.  Here’s the longer answer.

The average price doesn’t follow a predictable pattern in the fall.

As we head into the fall, we see that August typically sees a drop in average price, where 3/5 times in the past five years saw a price drop.  September does often see a price increase and 4/5 times, prices rose.  That became less consistent in October, but 3/5 times we did see a price increase over the past five years compared to September’s average price.  November returns to the August approach, and 3/5 times we saw the price drop in November.

The big question of course, is when September hits and prices rise, how much do they increase by?  Is it worth waiting until the fall to sell, and should buyers avoid purchasing in September?

On average, prices go up by about 3% in the fall.

When we look at the difference from August to September for average price in the GTA, it works out to about 3.2% higher in September.  Keep in mind we had one year (2022) where the average price dropped slightly in September compared to August, so the average is skewed down a bit as a result.

In 2023 and 2024, the average price rose in September by a bit over 4%.  Given our GTA average price of $1.016M in August 2025, that would mean we’d see prices go up by about $40K in September.  That isn’t chump change, but given the lack of consistency over the past five years, we’d advise against relying strongly on that specific percentage or dollar increase.

If you wanted a number to hang your hat on, we’d suggest using the 3.2% increase that is the average of the past five years.  With our current (August 2025) average price, that would mean the average price in September would increase by about $30,000.  A reminder that no one sells the market on average, they sell a particular property, in a specific area, so please don’t start spending that extra $30K just yet.

If you’re trying to decide on what to do on either the buying or selling side – or both – then get in touch with us.  We love getting into the specifics of what has been happening in your area and price point and we’d be happy to provide you with the information you need to make a decision.