In both good and bad markets, there is some simple math that determines how well the seller did on the sale of the property.

If you sold it for more than what you bought it for, you did well.  If you had to take less than what you paid for it, you didn’t.  You can add in the transaction costs of buying and selling if you like, but at the end of the day, it boils down to how much you bought it for and your eventual sale price.

There is saying in real estate, which is that you make money when you buy, not when you sell.  The meaning behind it is as simple as the math above.  If you over pay for a property relative to the sale price of it over the course of your ownership, then you can’t make money.

The corollary to this adage is that buying at the height of a market is bad, particularly if you end up needing to sell during the low point of another market.  If that sounds as simplistic as what we’re describing above, you’re absolutely right.  There is some good news however, which is that it is easy to know if you’re at the current height or the current bottom of a market.

The real estate industry produces a staggering amount of statistics and while some are nuanced, the way to tell where a market is at any given point is simply the level of sales and the current average price.  If the current price is the highest in a number of years (or ever!) then you’re buying at the current height of the market.  Even in markets where prices rise consistently over the course of a year, there are variations each month in average price and it never goes up or down every month for extended periods.

Consider Toronto, where in the last 15 years, the average price has risen in 47% of the months and dropped in 53% of the months.  If you choose to buy after four or five months of rising prices, then you’ll need to make sure that you sell when prices have also been rising for a while.

The media has been full of stories in the past year about people losing tremendous amounts of money when they sell a property.  This is a very clear case of people who bought at the height of one market and are selling at a low point of another market.

It does not, however, mean that everyone will lose money on the sale of their property.  We recently helped a client sell a condo and while she was quite apprehensive about the price we could get her for it, she still made close to $200,000 profit on the sale after expenses.  She had owned it for a length of time and while condo prices have certainly dropped in the past couple of years, they are still not down to what you would have paid for one back in 2016.

We did the analysis on Toronto and the six other regions that TRREB operates within in order to say when your best and worst time to have bought was in the last 16 years.  Let’s get to it!

Toronto

In January, 2026, Toronto’s average sale price was $954,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Toronto was in April, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,249,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the city in the past 16 years, which took place in August, 2010, when a property cost about $417,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 67th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $295,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in April, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 127th lowest average price in Toronto in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $537,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in August, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Toronto in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $955,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in April, 2022, when properties in the city cost about $1,249,000. That’s approximately $294,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Toronto compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2021, when the average price was $877,000. Our current average price puts us about $78,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Toronto if you were thinking about selling now?   

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $955,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,230,000 → $275,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,146,000 → $191,000 above current prices
3. Spring 2025 (Mar–May 2025): Avg $1,131,000 → $177,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,126,000 → $171,000 above current prices
5. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,116,000 → $161,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Peel

In January, 2026, Peel’s average sale price was $911,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Peel was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,349,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2011, when a property cost about $370,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $438,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Peel in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $541,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2011.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Peel in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $911,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,349,000. That’s approximately $438,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Peel compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $792,000. Our current average price puts us about $119,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Peel if you were thinking about selling now?   

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $911,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,226,000 → $315,000 above current prices
2. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,225,000 → $314,000 above current prices
3. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,105,000 → $194,000 above current prices
4. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,096,000 → $185,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,090,000 → $178,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

York

In January, 2026, York’s average sale price was $1,094,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in York was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,556,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $465,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 65th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $462,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 129th lowest average price in York in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $628,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in York in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,094,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,557,000. That’s approximately $463,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in York compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $918,000. Our current average price puts us about $176,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in York if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,094,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,500,000 → $406,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,417,000 → $323,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,381,000 → $287,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,358,000 → $264,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,350,000 → $256,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Halton

In January, 2026, Halton’s average sale price was $1,137,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Halton was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,536,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in July, 2010, when a property cost about $443,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 57th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $399,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 137th lowest average price in Halton in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $694,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in July, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Halton in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,137,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,536,000. That’s approximately $399,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Halton compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $856,000. Our current average price puts us about $281,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Halton if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,137,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,445,000 → $308,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,405,000 → $267,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,312,000 → $175,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,269,000 → $131,000 above current prices
5. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,268,000 → $130,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Durham

In January, 2026, Durham’s average sale price was $821,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Durham was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,231,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in February, 2010, when a property cost about $289,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $409,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Durham in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $533,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in February, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Durham in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $822,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,231,000. That’s approximately $409,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Durham compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $620,000. Our current average price puts us about $202,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Durham if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $822,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,141,000 → $319,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,071,000 → $249,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $987,000 → $165,000 above current prices
4. Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $962,000 → $140,000 above current prices
5. Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $959,000 → $137,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Dufferin

In January, 2026, Dufferin’s average sale price was $944,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Dufferin was in January, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,228,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $276,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 35th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $284,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in January, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 159th lowest average price in Dufferin in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $668,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Dufferin in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $945,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in January, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,229,000. That’s approximately $284,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Dufferin compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $595,000. Our current average price puts us about $350,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Dufferin if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $945,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,157,000 → $212,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,067,000 → $122,000 above current prices
3. Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,043,000 → $98,000 above current prices
4. Fall 2023 (Sep–Nov 2023): Avg $984,000 → $39,000 above current prices
5. Summer 2022 (Jun–Aug 2022): Avg $969,000 → $24,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Simcoe

In January, 2026, Simcoe’s average sale price was $736,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Simcoe was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,033,000.  Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in October, 2010, when a property cost about $257,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us.  In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 60th highest price out of the last 193 months.  We’re about $297,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 134th lowest average price in Simcoe in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $479,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in October, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Simcoe in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $736,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,034,000. That’s approximately $298,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Simcoe compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $532,000. Our current average price puts us about $204,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Simcoe if you were thinking about selling now?  

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $736,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

1. Winter 2025 (Dec 2024–Feb 2025): Avg $817,000 → $81,000 above current prices
2. Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $839,000 → $103,000 above current prices
3. Summer 2024 (Jun–Aug 2024): Avg $821,000 → $85,000 above current prices
4. Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $991,000 → $255,000 above current prices
5. Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $975,000 → $239,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair!  The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average.  In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

While media stories paint all parts of Toronto and the GTA with the same brush, the truth is that each of these real estate markets has different patterns.  We work with clients in all of them and our analytical approach is part of what allows us to offer guidance on the timing to both buy and sell.

If you are thinking about buying this year, there is lots of evidence that you are buying at a considerable low point in the current market.  If you’re planning on selling, then when you bought and what is happening in your neighbourhood or building is crucial to your plans.  Get in touch with us to help figure out the best path forward!

When people talk about a real estate spring market, they’re referring to a perceived period of higher sales and greater activity in the market after the slower winter period.

In a general sense, we would agree that spring markets still take place each year, but only in the sense that the dead of winter is always the slowest time of year for real estate sales and any other time of year is busier in comparison.

Many sellers and buyers plan their next move around a perceived busy period, either the spring market or the fall market.  While such markets may have existed in the past, we’ve seen increasingly untethered markets over the last number of years.  We’ve previously written about fall markets but given that many of our buyer and seller clients are anxiously asking us about the spring market in 2026, we thought it was time to look at the data to see if we’ll actually see a spring market this year.

For our analysis we looked at the Toronto data going back 15 years to 2010.  We focused on what took place in February, March, April and May so that we could talk specifically about what “normally” happens and what we’re predicting will take place this year.  Let’s get into it.

February – So it begins!

When we look at the data, across all 15 years (2011–2025), February is higher than January for:

• Sales: 15/15 years up
• New listings: 15/15 years up
• Average price: 15/15 years up

We typically see around 2,500 sales in February, compared to about 1,700 sales in the city in January.  That’s about 40% higher than January, so absolutely a strong month over month increase in sales.  New listings typically go up about 21% in February, with median numbers of new listings being around 4,600.  Prices also start to rise in February, typically going up about 12% from the January average price.

While February is consistently a better month for sales, new listings and average prices, that’s because January is almost always the lowest month of the year for sales and new listings, and sometimes the lowest price of the year.  Is February the start of the spring market then?  Hold your horses.

March – More sales, more new listings, lower average price?

When we look at the last 15 years, March has consistently been busier than February in terms of number of sales and new listings, but not in higher average price.

• Sales: 15/15 years up
• New listings: 15/15 years up
• Average price: 6/15 years up

March sees about a 37% increase in sales compared to February, and about a 30% bump in number of new listings, so March is definitely more active than February.

On the average price side of things, March typically sees a drop of about 1% in average price compared to February.  Remember that prices from January to February typically increase by about 12%, which is a significant month over month change.  You could view the slight price drop that occurs in March as a bit of a market pause, as it adjusts to the new average price.  If that logic makes sense to us, then it is largely a function of how much of a price bump we saw in the February of a given year.  All told, March saw higher prices than February in six of the last 15 years, so about a one in three chance you’ll see that happen in any given year.  If this doesn’t sound exactly like a description of a hot spring market, let’s see what April brings.

April – Prices go up (likely), new listings go up (probably) and sales go up (maybe)

The stats for April show a somewhat variable but mostly positive picture when it comes to what typically takes place in the fourth month of the year.

• Sales: 10/15 years up
• New listings: 12/15 years up
• Average price: 13/15 years up

Starting with average price, April has seen a higher average price than March in 13 of the last 15 years, typically to the tune of about 5% higher.  It is possible that we don’t see an April increase compared to March, but most of the time, prices do go up in April.

On the new listings side of things, we have more new listings in Toronto in April than March in 12 of the last 15 years.  That means if you’re looking to buy, you can probably count on seeing about 10% more options for you in April, compared to what came on the market in March.

For our level of sales, April sees about a 10% increase in sales numbers, but that has only happened 10 out of the last 15 years.  Given more sales happen about two-thirds of the time, you can probably count on it happening, but don’t bet the farm on it.

Put it all together and April is the month that most fits the description of a spring market.  Most of the time it’s busier and sees higher average prices than previous months, which is what most people associate with the spring market.  Not all hope is lost if you’re not doing a deal by April though, as May isn’t typically too different.

May – It’s still spring, right?

The story for May continues to be somewhat inconsistent compared to previous months.

• Sales: 12/15 years up
• New listings: 14/15 years up
• Average price: 11/15 years up

Sales have continued to rise in 12 out of the last 15 months and the average price has gone up in May (compared to April) in 11 out of the last 15 months.  Interestingly enough, lots of sellers are latecomers to the spring market, with the number of new listings going up in 14 out of the past 15 years.

In terms of percentages, when May is up compared to April, it isn’t by a lot.  The median increase in average price is less than 2% and the number of sales is up by about 7%.  While the number of new listings is almost up compared to April, it only goes up by about 11%, which isn’t a strong increase compared to the start of the year with February and March jumps in new listing levels.

While April is most commonly the best month of the spring in terms of collective increases in sales, new listings and average price, May isn’t far behind and you might consider the spring market to typically take place in April and May, rather than in just one month.

What’s it all mean?

We did promise an answer to whether we’d see a spring market this year, so here it is.

Yes, but only compared to our low and slow numbers in the last few months.

We ended 2025 with December showing the lowest average price of the year in Toronto at about $970,000.  As such, any “typical” price appreciation in the spring of 2026 will be using a lower number as the starting point.  Similarly, our slow market in terms of sales means that while we’ll likely see an increase in February and onward, we’re not hitting it out of the park by any means.

There’s a lot of “this happens sometimes” and numbers and percentages above, so let’s finish with some key-take aways from this review that we think will hold true for 2026.

• January is a bad month (on average) for sellers to sell. With the lowest average price (for at least the first half of the year), sellers who can wait until at least February will, on average, get significantly more for their home.
• If you’re buying, March is likely the best time in the Spring to do so. February seems to be with eager beavers fighting over new listings and pushing up prices, while March sees a surge in new listings and sales, with a corresponding slow down in price appreciation.
• April is when sellers seem to get the best average sale price, with about 16% higher average sale prices in April compared to January.

There are always variables that impact what takes place in any given year, but with 15 years of data reviewed, the above is a good starting point if you plan on buying or selling in 2026.

If you’re interested in us doing the above analysis of the data for your specific market, housing type or price point, then get in touch with us.  While what’s happening in the market on average is useful to know, you’re not buying or selling the market – you’re buying or selling one specific property in one specific area.  Let’s make sure you time that transaction right!

With recent headlines about many condo developments being put on hold due to the market, we’re fielding a lot of questions from our clients who own condo units they’re considering selling.

The most common question is whether now is a bad time to sell a condo.  The question may be simple, but the answer is actually a bit complex.  Before we get into that, let’s share the story of a condo apartment sale we came across recently.  It was a two bedroom, two washroom condo with parking and a balcony located in the west end of Toronto.

The condo sold a week ago after more than six months on the market, for about $20K less than what the seller was asking. The agent who got it sold was the 4^th agent to give it try, as the previous three agents were fired.  All told, there were five MLS listings before it finally got sold.  Four agents, five listings, six months is not exactly a stellar track record.  We weren’t involved in either the sale or buy side but we think there are some insights to be had from reviewing what works when selling a condo – as well as what doesn’t work!

Here’s the history.

Let’s go through the details of what happened with this condo sale.

• The first listing went up at the start of November last year, for sale for $725,000, offers anytime.
• The second listing went up January 12^th with a new agent, listed at the same price of $725,000. After 27 days on the market, it was terminated.
• The third agent made their attempt in the middle of February, listing the unit for sale at $739,900 but after 27 days, they were also let go.
• The fourth and final agent came onto the scene near the start of April, listing the unit for sale for $649,000 but this time they were holding back offers for a week. That didn’t work and after 12 days, this listing was terminated.
• The same agent relisted it (making it the fifth listing since they started their attempt to sell last year) at $739,900 and sold it for $720,000.

Quite the story!  There’s one big question we should try to answer about the sale.

Did the seller get what they wanted?

That’s a hard question to answer, so let’s look at it from a few different perspectives.

Back at the start of November when they hired the first agent to sell the unit, they put a possession date of between 30 to 60 days.  They were clearly hoping to be out before the holidays or the start of the new year.  That was definitely not the case and instead of selling in November, they had the unit on the market all month, as well as in December, January, February, March and April.  If you’ve ever had the joy of selling your home, you know that keeping it in showing ready condition for a week is hard to do, let alone for almost half a year!  By this metric, we’d say the seller definitely didn’t get what they wanted.

While we don’t know the seller or the four agents involved in this sale, we do think that interviewing, hiring and signing paperwork four times was not something the seller initially envisioned happening.  We also bet that the three times they fired their agent wasn’t pleasant and the paperwork to terminate the listing and their representation would also have been time consuming.  As such, from a time spent worrying about the listings and interacting with their agent(s), this likely wasn’t what the seller wanted.

Finally, let’s talk about the sale price.  The seller originally wanted $725,000 and 169 days later they sold for $720,000.  That’s pretty close to their original list price, though a bit down from the $740,000 they raised it to for the 3rd and 5th listings.  It is a pretty quick closing of about a month, so that may have factored into their willingness to take $20K less than what they wanted.  We’d say that from the sale price perspective, the seller would have (hopefully) felt like they more or less got what they wanted.

So, is now a good time to sell a condo?

There are a few insights to be had from this example that inform our answer as to whether now is a condo time to sell a condo apartment.

The above example shows that for this specific unit, now was a much better time to sell than six months ago.  The average price for a condo apartment in Toronto in November, 2023 was $716,000 and as of March, 2024, it rose to $729,000.  That’s just $13K difference, but it’s about 2% higher and we’re at the highest average sale price in the city since September, 2023.  As such, now is definitely a better time than it has been!

Despite the length of time this particular condo took to sell, the average days on market for condo apartments in Toronto has been dropping over the past couple of months.  At the start of the year, it took 41 days on average for a condo apartment to sell in the city, then it dropped to 30 days in February and as of March, it had dropped to 27 days on average.  That still isn’t exactly speedy, but it is the quickest we’ve seen the condo market move since October of last year.

Both the number of sales as well as the average sale to list price ratio has also been slowly increasing this year.  March saw the most sales of condo units in the city since June, 2023, so the market is picking up in terms of activity.  At the same time, buyers are paying about 99% of list price on average these days, which is the highest it has been since July, 2023.

Put it all together and we’d say that now is a better time to sell a condo than it has been for quite a while, but we’re far from the busy seller’s market we saw back in early 2022.  If you’ve been waiting to sell for past six months or so, then that was likely a good decision.  If you’re thinking that now is when selling might make more sense, give us a call so that we can dive into the specifics for your unit and building.

After all, we don’t want someone writing an article about your place six months from now!

We’ve previously written about how you can decide if it makes sense to renovate a home or not, as well as what renovations give you the best return.

Let’s consider a question we are often asked by our clients – is selling their home “as is” a good idea?  While we would say that in general the answer is no, there are three situations where foregoing renovations makes sense.

1.  Before a Market Shift

It can take a significant amount of time to make a home look it’s best.  In the weeks or months that you are planning, booking contractors, ordering supplies and doing the actual renovation, the market can shift.

Whether it is a seasonal shift, where you miss the hot fall market and end up selling in the dead of winter, or an event-driven shift, such as new government measures designed to cool the market, waiting to sell can sometimes cost you money.

If you have the ability to renovate as well as hold onto the renovated home until the market is hot, then it almost always makes sense to do the renovations rather than sell “as is”.  If, however, you are working to a deadline that doesn’t allow you to wait once the renovations are done, you need to carefully consider if there is enough time before you’re selling in a market you’d rather avoid.  Remember that renovations often take longer than expected, so make sure to build in a time buffer to your plans.

2.  When Your Home is Among the Lowest Price in the Area

In any street, neighbourhood or building, there are significant differences in value of houses or units.

Whether it is size, features or location, there are often situations where the range of sale prices can be significant, with the most expensive home sometimes double or even triple the price of the cheapest option.

If your home is at or near the bottom of the price range for your street, neighbourhood or building, selling it “as is” can be a very effective strategy.  Put simply, buyers who want into your area often have the budget to both buy your home as well as do the renovations themselves.  It makes financial sense to them to spend the additional money after purchase as they are getting into the area that they want at a combined investment they can afford.

Conversely, if you are at or near the top of prices in your area, selling your home “as is” is not likely to be effective.  Buyers who are paying that price in your area expect a home that has an equally high level of finishes.

3.  If There is Infill Potential

The final situation where skipping the renovation may make sense is when your home has infill potential.  Infill refers to any project that builds new housing in an already established neighbourhood.  In this case, we’re talking about a street or neighbourhood where the older housing stock is slowly being torn down and replaced with new, modern style homes.

If you have a mix of housing types and age on your street, with recent new builds having taken place, and you have a home where you haven’t done significant renovations, you might consider skipping even the cosmetic updates and just sell “as is”.  The likely purchaser is either a builder who wants to tear down and build and sell a new home on your lot, or an end-user who plans on hiring a builder to do it for their own use.

It isn’t quite accurate to say this means you are selling for land value only, as it can be quite difficult to get a mortgage on a vacant lot.  In the case where you sell your home “as is” to someone who plans on tearing it down, your existing home allows for a conventional mortgage to be secured, at conventional mortgage rates.

While it is often smart to put your best foot forward when you sell your home, it can sometimes make sense to skip the renovations and just get it on the market.  If you want to talk about which approach makes sense for your home, get in touch.

In real estate, Tuesdays has become a day when agents tend to list properties.  It isn’t a hard and fast rule and people can list whenever they want, but it became a de facto standard for a few reasons.

• It can be a challenge to get paperwork and everything ready on Monday.
• If you list later in the week, it typically takes Realtor.ca up to 24 hours to propagate the listing and if you’re doing an open house (when people actually went to see homes with other people!) it can take up to 48 hours. No point missing buyers looking on the weekend by listing too late in the week.
• Once the weekend actually starts, lots of buyers (and even some agents) are focused on things other than new listings.

We wanted to see if the conventional wisdom about new listings coming out on Tuesday still holds true.  We looked at the listings in Toronto in June 2021 for both freehold and condo properties.  Here’s what we found.

For freehold properties, Tuesday is the most popular and Sunday the least popular.

If we look at the listing dates for freehold properties in Toronto in June 2021 we see the following data.

What’s it mean?  First off, here’s the most popular days of the week to list a freehold home, in descending order:

1. Tuesday is the most popular day with 129 listings on average
2. Then Thursday, with 126 listings on average
3. Then Wednesday, with 116 listings on average
4. Then Monday, with 110 listings on average
5. Then Friday, with 90 listings on average
6. Then Saturday, with 24 listings on average
7. Sunday is the least popular day with just 14 listings on average

While Tuesday does remain the most popular day to list a home, the range from Monday to Thursday is quite tight, going from 110 listings to 129 listings.  Friday starts to see a real dip with just 90 listings on average but it is the weekend where things quite right now.  Saturday has 24 listings hit the market on average and Sunday is the slowest day of the week, with just 14 new listings.

To put it another way, the slowest day of the week (Sunday) sees just 1/11^th of the number of listings on the busiest day of the week (Tuesday).

For condo properties, Wednesday is the most popular and Sunday the least popular.

If we look at the listing dates for condo properties in Toronto in June 2021 we see the following data.

What’s it mean?  It’s not fundamentally different than freehold but there are some variations.  First off, here’s the most popular days of the week to list a condo property, in descending order:

1. Wednesday is (barely) the most popular day with 94 listings on average
2. Then Thursday, with 93 listings on average
3. Then Monday, with 92 listings on average
4. Then Tuesday, with 91 listings on average
5. Then Friday, with 81 listings on average
6. Then Saturday, with 31 listings on average
7. Sunday is the least popular day with just 17 listings on average

While Wednesday is the most popular day to list a condo, given that the range from Monday to Thursday is a very tight 91 to 94 days, it isn’t as if any day prior to Friday really stands out.  Friday is when we see a drop (down to 81 listings) but it isn’t until we hit the weekend that we see a huge drop in activity.  Just like with freehold homes, condo listings slow down hugely on the weekend and Sunday is again the slowest day of the week, with just 17 new listings on average.

To put it another way, the slowest day of the week (Sunday) sees just 1/18^th of the number of listings on the busiest day of the week (Wednesday).

If you’re looking to buy or sell, make sure you work with agents who understand how timing impacts your results.  To talk more about your specific situation, feel free to get in touch.

There are arguments for listing your home for sale on a day when there is less competition, but at the same time it seems quite clear that buyers (and their agents) have become accustomed to far fewer new listings on the weekend.

If you’re a buyer looking to jump the queue, then keeping a close eye on listings on the weekend might be a good opportunity to submit a quick offer on a property that just came on the market.  On the sell side, any day from Monday to Thursday is likely to garner a large number of buyers and agents who expect to see new listings during the week.

If you’re looking to buy or sell, make sure you work with agents who understand how timing impacts your results.  To talk more about your specific situation, feel free to get in touch.

There is an expression that is often used in real estate, which is the dog days of summer.  The typical connotation is the quiet period in real estate in July and August where there are fewer listings and sales.  While you may think that’s because it’s a hot time of the year and dogs sit around panting in the sun, there is apparently a more nuanced explanation.

The reason behind the saying has to do with the fact that from July 3^rd to August 11^th, the Sun occupies the same region of the sky as Sirius, the brightest star visible from any part of Earth and part of the constellation Canis Major, the Greater Dog.

The earth’s tilt during this time (in the northern hemisphere at least) means these are traditionally the hottest days of the year.  In real estate, we have traditionally seen a bit of a lull during these times.  We don’t get a long summer in Ontario, so it does make sense that people take time off from buying and selling real estate to actually get out there and enjoy the nice weather.

We’ve seen traditional cycles of real estate upended due to COVID and it made us wonder if the dog days of summer are still a thing in real estate.  We pulled the data and charts from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board in order to get the answer.  Let’s dive in.

Monthly Sales

While the slowest time of year for real estate is traditionally the dead of winter (December and January), we historically saw that the dog days of summer (July and August) had the second slowest period with fewer sales.  Is that still true?

When we look at the monthly sales with the last three years as a comparison, this is no longer the case.

• In 2018, July and August were busier months for sales than September. October got a bit busier than things started to quiet down in November before slowing down tremendously in December.
• In 2019, we effectively saw the same story. July was only a bit quieter than June but still saw more sales than September.  October was the only real “Fall Market” before November quieted down again.
• In 2020, we had the impact of COVID on the market, which meant a very slow Spring. July actually took off compared to June and it was literally exactly the same number of sales in July 2020 as in September 2020.  October dipped a bit and then a bit more in December.
• In 2021 so far, we’ve seen huge numbers of sales, but we peaked in March. April dropped down and so did May.  We would expect to see June numbers continue that trend.

What can we takeaway from the above chart?

In recent years, we reach our high for the year in May most of the time.  June begins to drop a bit and July, August and September are fundamentally similar in terms of number of sales.  October traditionally sees a bit of a spike in sales before things quiet down as we head into the holidays and the end of the year.

Do the dog days of summer exist from the perspective of number of sales?  No.  They are effectively similar in the number of transactions.

Monthly Prices

Let’s turn to our other key indicator, the average sale price.

Traditionally we see the highest average price in the spring with the fall market approaching a similar height.  The lowest sale price is almost always at the start of the year in January.

When we look at the monthly average sale price with the last three years as a comparison, we are seeing the fall market taking the lead and a limited number of opportunities in the summer.

• In 2018, we hit our highest average sale price in May. October was just a couple of thousand dollars lower.  July and August went down a bit but not a huge drop.
• In 2019, we achieved our highest average sale price in October. August was a bit of a buying opportunity as the average sale price dipped to the lowest it had been since March.
• In 2020, we had the impact of COVID on the market, which saw prices drop in the spring, and our lowest average sale price for the year in April. The highest average sale price took place in October.  There were no buying opportunities in July or August and from May through to October, the average sale price increased each month.
• In 2021 so far, we’ve seen record breaking average sale prices in three of the five months on record. January was our lowest average sale price and May (the last month we have data for yet) is the highest average sale price so far.

What can we takeaway from the above chart?

July is still traditionally a bit cheaper than June and August is a bit cheaper than July.  Last year bucked that trend but if we discount that data given the unusual circumstances, it seems likely that this year may return to the norm.  If that takes place it means that, on average, July and August may see lower sale prices.

Do the dog days of summer exist from the perspective of average sale price?  Yes.  It isn’t always consistent, and it isn’t a huge drop, but August (and to a lesser extent July) do see average lower prices.

Our review of the latest charts and data tells us that the dog days of summer no longer follow the hard and fast rule they traditionally did.  We don’t see a consistent strong slow down in the number of sales in July and August, but we do still see a bit of a drop in the average sale price, with August being the clearest month for buying opportunity.

If you’re considering buying or selling, then work with agents who don’t give you platitudes about what “traditionally” happens but instead look at the data to help identify opportunities in buying and selling.  If that sounds appealing, please get in touch with us!