A lot of real estate statistics are, by their very nature, backward looking. We examine what sold and for how much, how long it took to sell and so on. If we add in the delays of aggregating the data, we’re often giving analysis of what’s happening “now” when it really reflects what has happened in the last 30 to 45 days.
We actively work with buyers and sellers on a daily basis, and we definitely see differences from what the “latest” stats show compared to what we’re experiencing today.
While anecdotal descriptions of what a real estate market is like now are somewhat helpful, we can delve into current stats to get a more up to date understanding of how different markets are doing right now. We’ve done exactly that for the GTA so that we can tell you what’s happening in the past week in each of these markets, and which market is the hottest right now.
We examined where homes are selling for the most over asking price now, where the lowest number of active listings are currently on the market and where homes are selling the quickest. Put it all together and you get a sense of the hottest market in the GTA this week as well as where might be the next hot market!
Let’s get into it.
Where are homes selling for the most over asking?
In the past seven days (January 15th to January 21st, 2022) we had 31 freehold homes sell in the GTA for over 150% of asking price. That means that if the home was listed at $1M, it sold for $1.5M. That’s a huge premium over list price, even taking into account sellers listing below market value, and such high sale to list price ratios are clear indication of how hot a market is right now.
21 of the 31 sales over 150% took place in Durham Region, meaning it is absolutely the hottest market from this metric. Toronto had six sales over 150%, Halton Region had two sales and Peel and York Regions each only had one sale over 150%.
If we look at the number of total sales in Durham Region, we see that we had 139 sales, which means that 15% of the homes that sold in the past week in Durham sold for over 150%. That is one hot market! The average sale to list price ratio overall in Durham was 131%, the highest in all of the GTA.
York Region was the coolest market overall, with one sale over 150% out of 178 sales in the past week. Their average sale to list price ratio was 117%, also the lowest in the GTA in the last week.
Where are homes selling the fastest?
In the past seven days (January 15th to January 21st, 2022) the median days on market in the GTA was just 5.2 days. With the number of transactions ranging from 98 (Halton) up to 178 (York), the median is a better indication of the speed and heat of the market than the average, which is prone to outliers influencing that number upward.
The hottest market on this metric was Peel Region, with a blistering four day median for a home to go from listed to sold. Toronto and York were the “slowest” markets at a six days median, which tells us that across the GTA, things are moving far, far faster than normal.
Where are the fewest number of homes available for sale?
If we look at the number of freehold homes for sale right now (January 21, 2022), the lowest number of homes for sale is in Halton Region, with just 217 houses listed for sale as of this date. The highest number of active homes is in Toronto, with 704 freehold homes for sale right now.
While it may seem like this means Halton is the hottest market right now based on the low level of homes for sale, we need to take population into account. After all, if you have a smaller population, a smaller number of homes for sale doesn’t necessarily translate into it being a hot market.
We pulled the latest census numbers for population in the five areas that make up the GTA and used that to calculate the current number of homes for sale per 1,000 residents of the area. When we look at the active listings from that perspective, Halton Region is actually in the middle of the pack, with 40 listings per 1,000 residents.
The actual hottest market based on listings per population is York Region, with just 25 listings currently for sale per 1,000 residents. Toronto is the coolest market by this metric with 64 listings currently for sale per 1,000 residents. The average number of homes for sale per 1,000 residents across the GTA is approximately 40 listings, which means York Region is definitely hotter than the GTA as a whole.
When we take into account where homes are selling for the highest percentage over asking, where they are selling in the quickest amount of time and where there are the fewest number of active listings for the population of the area, we have three different answers to where the hottest market is in the GTA.
- Durham Region is where you’re seeing the highest number of sales over 150% of asking and the highest overall average sale to list price ratio in the GTA.
- Peel Region is where homes are selling the quickest in the GTA.
- York Region is where there are the fewest homes per sale based on the population.
When we combine all of the data we reviewed, it tells us that Durham Region is the current hottest market in the GTA, but it appears it is about to lose its crown to Peel Region. Markets change rapidly and that is the reason why its crucial to work with agents who understand what’s happening right now and know how to use that data to tell you what’s coming next. If that sounds appealing, get in touch so we can talk next steps.