Peel Market Analysis

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Peel area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

Let’s review the big picture before we get into the details below. In September, Peel saw 956 sales, about 4% more than in August. The average sale price rose by about $10,000, while new listings increased by about 16%. When we put it all together, September was busier and more active, with more buyers completing purchases, more would-be sellers listing their homes, and prices moving higher.

Here’s the latest charts for each of the three big categories (number of sales, average sale price and number of new listings), going back month by month for the last two years.

Let’s begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in the last month.  This is a fundamental stat as it tells us how many deals are actually taking place in the market.  We’re particularly focused on how busy this month was compared to the last month as well as any trends we see in the number of sales that have been taking place recently.  It’s also interesting to see if this a typical month in terms of sales, which we do by looking at the chart below and seeing how it compares to the same time last year and the year before.

When we review the number of sales in Peel, we see that there were 956 sales in September, compared to 915 sales in August. That was a modest increase, with sales up about 4% (41 sales) on a month over month basis. Compared to September of last year, sales were down about 3%, or 31 sales lower.

The average sale price tends to fluctuate month by month and there are definitely seasonal variability.  Using the chart below, we can look for any recent market trends in terms of pricing rising or dropping for a number of months and look back at the same time last year and two years ago to see what sort of annual appreciation we’ve been seeing for sale prices.

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Peel in September? In August, the average price was approximately $894,000, and in September, it was about $905,000. That was a small increase, with the average price up about 1% from August, or $10,000 higher month over month. Compared to September of last year, the average price was down about 5%, or roughly $52,000.

Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Peel in September, there were 2,712 new listings, compared to 2,338 new listings in August. That was a big increase, with new listings up about 16% from August, or 374 new listings higher month over month. Compared to September of last year, new listings were down about 25%, or 905 new listings lower.

To understand how it felt to buy or sell in Peel in September, we look at how quickly homes were selling and how close sellers were getting to their list price. The pace of the market held steady in September, with homes selling about as quickly as in August. At the same time, sellers were getting about the same share of their list price, so competitiveness would have felt much as it did in August. Let’s get into the details below.

Here’s the latest charts for these two categories (average days on market and average sale to list price ratio), going back month by month for the last two years.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

Here’s the latest data on how many days on market it took for homes to sell in Peel.

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Peel in September is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Peel in September was 37 days, compared to 37 days in August. That means the time it took homes to sell was unchanged from the previous month. In practical terms, the pace of the market would have felt about the same. Compared to September of last year, average days on market was up about 12%, or 4 days higher.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

Now that we’re clear on the meaning, here’s the average sale to list price ratio each month for the last couple of years.

The average sale-to-list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Peel in September was 97.3%, compared to 97.2% in August. That was essentially unchanged from August, with a difference of just 0. percentage points. While this stat is influenced by sellers listing below market value and setting offer dates, in practical terms, that monthly movement was too small to suggest the market felt noticeably more or less competitive. Compared to September of last year, the sale-to-list price ratio was down 0.8 percentage points.

To forecast where prices may go next in Peel, we’ve reviewed three predictive stats: the sale-to-new-listing ratio, active listings, and months of inventory. Taken together, the indicators aren’t consistent, but they point to moderate downward pressure on average prices in October. Our prediction is that the average price in Peel in October will fall by about 1% to 2%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $14,000 from September’s average price. That would put the October average price in Peel at about $891,000.

Here’s three charts for our predictive stats, looking at the Sales to New Listing Ratio, number of Active Listings and Months of Inventory.  It is interesting to see fluctuations over the past two years but we’re particularly focused on the most recent month as that is the best predictor of what is coming next.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

Let’s look at the latest SNLR in to see where we’ve landed and what sort of market we start next month with in Peel.

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales-to-new-listings ratio, or SNLR, which compares the number of sales to the number of new listings coming onto the market. In September, Peel’s SNLR was 35%, down 4 percentage points from 39% in August. That puts Peel in a buyer’s market, where new supply is outpacing demand. On its own, the SNLR is pointing to some downward pressure on prices heading into October.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

Fewer active listings tend to indicates that prices will rise as buyers battle for the properties on the market.  Let’s take a look at the latest numbers.

The second predictive stat is active listings, which tells us how many properties buyers had to choose from at the start of October. In Peel at the end of September, there were 4,765 active listings, compared to 5,048 at the end of August. That was a modest change, with active listings down about 6% from August, or 283 listings lower month over month. Compared to September of last year, active listings were down about 19%, or 1,110 listings lower. The current count sits toward the higher end of its two-year range. Although active listings fell from August, the absolute level remains high enough relative to the last two years to put downward pressure on prices in October.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Peel.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all houses on the market in Peel to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market.

How is Peel doing in terms of months of inventory?  Remember that the lower the levels of inventory, the more likely it is that prices will rise.

The third predictive stat is months of inventory, which tells us how long it would take to sell through the available listings at the current pace of sales and, as a result, gives us a useful read on whether buyers are gaining or losing leverage. In Peel at the end of September, there were 5.0 months of inventory, which was down about 9% from August, or 0.5 months lower month over month. This September’s level was lower than September of last year by 1.0 month, or about 17%. Compared with the last two September levels, September 2024 was at 4.8 months and September 2025 was at 6.0 months. Even with that historical context, current supply conditions are elevated. Broadly speaking, with 5.0 months of inventory available for buyers, that still leaves enough supply relative to sales that prices should drop in October.

The charts and analysis above cover a lot of ground, so it is worth stepping back to summarize what happened and what it means.

September saw stronger sales, higher prices, and more new listings.

Overall, September was a better month than August in terms of activity, although sales are still below what we saw two years ago. Sales rose 4% month-over-month (915 to 956, just 41 more), which is below September 2025 (987) and below September 2024 (967). In the condo segment, sales rose 12% (134 to 150, just 16 more).

The average sale price rose 1.2% ($890,000 to $900,000, about $10,000 higher). In the condo segment, the average price rose 0.8% ($480,000 to $490,000, about $4,000 higher).

New listings rose 16% overall (2,338 to 2,712). Condo new listings rose 8% (445 to 481). Taken together, supply grew faster than demand overall, which can limit seller pricing power if the new supply is not absorbed quickly.

Peel felt similar in pace, but a bit more competitive.

Overall, September was effectively unchanged from August. Average days on market held at 37 days, compared to 37 days in August.

That leaves the overall pace essentially unchanged. Compared with the last two September levels, the overall market is slower than September 2025, when homes took 33 days on average to sell, and slower than September 2024, when homes took 27 days on average to sell. In the condo segment, days on market rose to 52 days from 48. Compared with the last two September levels, that is slower than September 2025, when condo apartments took 43 days on average to sell, and slower than September 2024, when they took 34 days on average to sell.

Sale-to-list tells a different story in the overall market and condo segment. Across the overall market, the ratio rose to 97.3% (from 97.2%). In the condo segment, the sale-to-list ratio fell to 96.5% (from 96.6%). Taken together, the overall market moved faster, but sellers did not gain much negotiating leverage.

October prices will face moderate downward pressure in Peel, with condo apartments also facing strong downward pressure.

The supporting indicators show the SNLR fell to 35% from 39%, active listings fell to 4,765 (down 6%), and months of inventory stood at 5.0 months. Taken together, the indicators aren’t unanimous, but they point to moderate downward pressure on average prices in October. Our prediction is that the average price in Peel in October will fall by about 1% to 2%. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $14,000 from September’s average price. That would put the October average price in Peel at about $891,000.

In the condo segment, conditions are weaker. Supporting that view, the SNLR was 31%, active listings stood at 1,023 (down 6%), and months of inventory stood at 6.8 months. Taken together, the condo indicators are pointing pretty clearly in one direction, with strong downward pressure on average condo prices. Based on that, our prediction is that the average condo price in Peel will fall by about 1% to 2% in October. In dollar terms, using the midpoint of that range, that would mean a drop of somewhere around $7,000 from September’s average condo price, putting the October average at about $479,000.

We hope this review and analysis of Peel was helpful. Check back near the start of next month for the latest update on what is happening in Peel!

We hope you found this review of the latest market stats helpful!  Within the Refined team we work throughout the GTA and we often partner with local agents we know and trust to make sure our clients get the best of both worlds.  If you’re considering buying or selling and want to work with people who understand your market, don’t hesitate to get in touch with us.  Otherwise, check back near the start of next month to see the latest Peel market analysis!