Toronto Market Analysis

We know your market and here’s where we prove it.

Below you’ll find the latest statistics on what’s going on in the Toronto area and our take on what it means.  We do that by answering three questions for you.

Let’s get started.

October is often the last hurrah before we slow down for the year and the cold winter months, and that’s what we saw in Toronto this year.  Our number of sales went up by about 5% compared to September but our average price dropped ever so slightly, going down by about $4,000.  The number of new listings also dropped pretty significantly, so we’d say that October was about sellers taking the price they could get before the real slow down occurs.

Let’s look at the specifics for what was going on in Toronto in our three big categories.

If we begin by looking at the number of sales that happened in October, we saw the number of sales rise to around 2,300 for the month.

What’s it mean?

When we review the number of sales in Toronto, we see that there were about 5% more sales in October than September. In actual number of transactions, we went from 2,166 sales up to 2,271, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 110 more sales in Toronto.  We had fewer sales this October than last October (when we had about 2,600 sales) but we were much busier than October 2023 when we had under 2,000 sales in the city.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

If we look just at the condo segment of the market in Toronto, we also saw about 5% more sales in October than September. We went from 960 condo apartment sales up to 1,004, which means on a month over month basis, there were about 40 more sales of condo units in Toronto.  Just like the market as a whole, that’s not as good as last year (October 2024) when we had almost 1,200 sales of condo units, but we were busier than October 2023, when there were just over 900 condo units sold in Toronto.

In terms of prices, October saw the average price for a home in Toronto drop to approximately $1,083,000.

What’s it mean? 

While how many sales took place is important, the big question is what happened to the average sale price in Toronto in October? In September the average price was approximately $1,087,000 and October saw that go down by about half a percent to $1,083,000. That works out to a difference of around $4,000 when compared to last month.  Our current average price in the city is down 5.5% compared to a year ago, when it was $1.146M.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

For the condo market, this is what we saw happen to the average price for a unit. In September the average price for a condo apartment was approximately $683,000 and in October we saw that go up by 2.8% to about $703,000. In dollars, that works out to about $19,000 more than last month.  Given the market as a whole dropped while condo prices actually rose, we know that freehold homes definitely dropped in October.  The average price for a condo unit in the city is now about $20,000 less than it was a year ago, so still lots of opportunity in this segment of the market.

Our final source for what’s been happening this month in the Toronto real estate market is the number of new listings that came on the market. In October we saw that number go down, with 6,223 new listings in the city.

What’s it mean? 

Turning to the supply side, when we review the number of new listings that came onto the market in Toronto in October, we see that we had 6,223 new listings, compared to 7,475 new listings in September. That’s approximately 17% fewer new listings, on a month over month basis.  Year to date, we’ve had over 64,000 listings come on the market in Toronto, which is 4,500 more than we had in the same first 10 months of last year.  October is almost always the last month of high new listing activity before we see it start to drop in November and into the winter, and we expect we’ll say that happen again this year.

Tale of two markets – what’s going on with condos?

In terms of the the number of new condo apartment listings that came onto the market in Toronto in October, we had 2,973 new listings, compared to 3,447 new listings in September. That’s about 14% fewer new condo listings, on a month over month basis.  We had over 33,000 new condo listings come onto the market so far this year, which is just slightly higher than last year (January to October 2024), so that tells us that freehold properties were where Toronto saw that overall 4,500 increase in level of new listings.

If you were buying or selling in Toronto in October, it would have felt similar to September in terms of pacing, with properties selling just one day faster on average.  At the same time, the market felt a bit less competitive, as the sale to list price ratio dropped by almost half a percent.

Let’s look in detail at the two specific stats that tell us how it felt to buy and sell in Toronto this month.

One of the best indicators of how a market feels is how long homes remain on the market.  The quicker they fly off the market, the more frantic and stressful it can be for both sides.  While it may seem like that is always positive for sellers, make no mistake, it can be stressful when sellers receive lots of attention or offers quickly.  The fear of making a mistake and pressure to decide quickly is hard on both buyers and sellers.

In October we saw the length of time that it took for homes to sell go down to 32 days on average.

How did it feel?

One of the clearest indicators of how it felt to be buying or selling in Toronto in October is how long it took for a home to sell. The average days on market in Toronto in October was 32 days, which is down one day from September, when it was 33 days. That little a change wouldn’t have felt noticeable to buyers or sellers, so the market would have felt similarly paced to how it has been for the last four months.  A year ago (October 2024), it was a slightly faster paced market, with the average length of time on market being 29 days.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

In the condo market, the average days on market in Toronto in October was 38 days, which is down two days from September, when it was 40 days. This still isn’t a significant change month over month, so if you were buying or selling a condo unit in Toronto in October, it felt more or less the same as it has for the past few months.  We’re average about four days longer to sell a condo apartment now versus last October (2024), so while this length of time isn’t unusual for this year, it is still a fair bit slower than past years.

The other statistic that gives us a good idea of how it feels to buy and sell in this month’s market is the sale to list price ratio.  This is a percentage that tells us how close to the price the sellers wanted they actually received from buyers.  If the sale to list price ratio is 100%, it means buyers paid exactly what the sellers were asking for the property.  If it’s under 100%, then the buyers negotiated a discount and if it’s over 100%, then the sellers got even more than they were asking for as a sale price.

In October, the average sale to list price ratio in the city decreased to just under 99%.

How did it feel?

The average sale to list price ratio (how much of their list price sellers are actually getting when they sell) in Toronto in October was 98.8%, which is down from September when it was 99.2%. While this stat is influenced when sellers are listing below market value with an offer date, the fact that this stat decreased compared to last month is an indication that the market felt less competitive in October.  A year ago (October 2024), our average sale to list price ratio in Toronto was 100.2% so almost 1.5% higher than what sellers are getting now.

Tale of two markets – how did it feel if you were buying or selling condos?

In the condo segment of the market, the average sale to list price ratio in Toronto in October was 97.6%, which is up ever so slightly from September when it was 97.5%.  Last month was the lowest sale to list price ratio for condo units in more than two years, so any increase – even the smallest of increases – is good news for condo sellers.  A year ago, the average sale to list price ratio for condo units in Toronto was 98.7%, so we’re seeing sellers get more than 1% less now on average then they did a year ago.

In order to predict what is coming next for Toronto’s real estate market, we can look at three predictive stats, which we go into in detail below. While all of the stats are improved (i.e. not quite as much of a buyer’s market as they were last month), they are still very much in buyer’s market territory.  November almost always sees a price drop and when you combine the current stats with that trend, we’re confidently predicting a price drop of 2-3% in November.

Let’s take a more detailed look at the three predictive stats we have for what comes next in the Toronto market.

Let’s start with an acronym!  The Sales to New Listing Ratio (SNLR) tells us how many of the sales we saw this month were new listings in the month versus existing listings that had been on the market from previous months.  It’s considered a strong predictor of what happens in the next month because it tells us if inventory is sticking around or selling quickly.

• If the SNLR is around 50%, we have a balanced market, with sales equal to half the number of new listings coming on the market. A good amount of sales and a good amount of new options means reasonable price increases.
• Over 50% is heading towards a seller’s market, as we have sales outpacing the new inventory coming on the market. In extreme cases, we can have an SNLR of over 100%, which means we saw more sales in a month than inventory came on the market, meaning next month is very likely to see a price increase.
• Under 50% tells us that the we are headed towards a buyer’s market. The lower the SNLR, the more of a net increase in properties available the following month.  This means prices typically drop as buyers react to having lots of choices by pushing down the price they are willing to pay.

In October, we saw the SNLR in Toronto increase to 36%, which means we’re in a buyer’s market right now in the city.

What does this predict?

The first of our three predictive stats is the sales to new list ratio (or SNLR) which increased in October, going up by 8% to 36%, which is effectively a 26% increase in one month. While that is a significant change in the direction of a balanced market (50% to 60%), we’re still very much in a buyer’s market.  As such, this stat says that we should see Toronto’s average price drop in November.

How will the condo market do?

The SNLR for the condo market also increased in October, going up by 6% to 34%, which is effectively a 21% increase in one month. Despite that movement towards a balanced condo market, we’re still well short of it and we will absolutely see a drop in the average price for a condo in Toronto in November based on this stat.

As we turn to active listings, we need to be clear about what that means.  The number used for active listings is the number of actual, currently for sale properties at the end of the month.  This number is therefore comprised of the older listings already on the market at the start of the month, plus any new listings that didn’t sell in the month, less any older or new listings that did sell before the end of the month.

October saw the number of active listings in Toronto decrease, going down to 10,942 options for buyers as of the end of the month.

What does this predict?

The second predictive stat is the number of active listings in Toronto. We had 10,942 active listings on the market as of the end of October, which is approximately a 1% decrease compared to September when we had 11,098 listings on the market at the end of the month. That’s not really much of a decrease, and we’re still at very elevated levels of active listings in the city.  A year ago, we had about 1,000 fewer listings, but back in October 2023, we had about 2,500 fewer properties for sale in Toronto.  We’ve been at over 10,000 properties for sale in Toronto since April 2025 and we’re not sure we’ll see that dip below the 10K level until December.  Despite the slight drop in active listings month over month, we’re still saying that the prices should drop in November in Toronto based on our high levels of inventory.

How will the condo market do?

We had 5,774 active condo unit listings on the market as of the end of October, which is approximately a 2% decrease over September, when we had 5,921 listings on the market at the end of the month. Just like the market as a whole, the number of active condo listings is quite elevated from a historic perspective, so we believe that condo prices in Toronto should also drop in November based on this stat.

Finally, let’s look at the Months of Inventory in Toronto.

This statistic tracks how long it would take for all properties on the market in Toronto to sell if we stopped having any new listings.  The higher the MOI, the more of a buyer’s market, the lower the MOI, the more of a seller’s market.  Somewhere between three to four months is considered a balanced market, but Toronto is almost always significantly below that level.

October saw Toronto’s months of inventory drop, and it is now at 4.8 months.

What does this predict?

Let’s look at what our current months of inventory for Toronto predict what will happen to prices next month. The MOI as of the end of October was 4.8 months, which means that Toronto is a bit of a buyer’s market as of right now. It was 5.1 months in September, so we’re inching downwards but still at pretty high levels.  In October 2024, the MOI was 3.9 months and back in October 2023 it was 4.4 months, so historically speaking, we’re higher than is typical for this time of year.  While it has improved a bit, the current MOI of 4.8 months still means we expect to see prices drop in November.

How will the condo market do?

The MOI for the condo segment of the market as of the end of October was 5.8 months, which means that the Toronto condo market is definitely a buyer’s market as of right now.  We have a full month more of condo unit inventory compared overall inventory in the market.  Just like the market as a whole, we have more condo inventory this October than previous years, when it was between 4.8 to 5.3 months. The current months of inventory for condo units means that the average price for a condo in Toronto should drop in November.

There is a lot of information in the above charts and analysis and it’s worth taking a step back to summarize what happened and to understand what it all means.