We’re in the final quarter of the year, with just a few months before 2025 is over!  We know for sure that December is often the slowest month of the year in terms of new listings and sales, but what about October and November?

We decided to crunch some numbers from the Toronto real estate market to get at the real truth about what happens in the last quarter of the year.  Our assumption was that it was typically the slowest and least busy quarter of the year, but let’s see what the data says!

October: The Beginning of the End

When we look at the last quarter of the year in Toronto over the past 15 years, it’s pretty clear that October is the last hurrah before the market powers down for the holidays.

  • The number of sales typically goes up by about 9% compared to September.
  • The number of new listings starts to fall, often by over 12% compared to September.
  • Prices in October aren’t often much different than September, and at best you’d see an increase in the average price in the city of a bit over 1%.

These stats means that the October market typically feels like it has some good energy and decent absorption of inventory on the market.  While we often have less fresh supply of homes coming on the market, the well-priced homes on the market still move.

That’s the typical situation in October, but some years are different than others.  Last year we saw a very unusual surge in sales in October, up about 31% compare to September.  We don’t think that will be the case this year, but it is definitely unusual times for real estate markets!

November: The Great Slowdown

Over the last 15 years, November is when we see momentum start to cool, with both buyers as well as sellers shifting their focus to the year-end.

  • The number of sales in November typically are down about 12% compared to October.
  • New listings drop significantly, with about 24% fewer new properties coming on the market in November compared to October.
  • We also start to see the average price in the city drop, typically going down by over 2% compared to the previous month.

Take all of that into account and it means that November is a time when there are fewer new options for buyers, so good listings still get attention, but the more casual buyers tend to disappear.

The last really unusual November that we saw as back in 2017, when we actually saw the level of sales rise compared to October.  It was just a bit over 1% more sales in that November than the previous month, but any rise is very unusual for that time of year.

December: The Quiet Before the Spring Rush

If we had to describe what takes place in December’s real estate market in Toronto, it would be a thinning out of what’s left.  Here’s what we mean by that!

  • Sales plunge from the November levels, often going down by a third or more (down over 35% compared to the previous month).
  • New listings see an even more dramatic drop, often being cut in half compared to November. We still see some sales, so we don’t often see any growth in inventory in December.
  • The average price in Toronto typically drops considerably in December as well, often by around 7%.

The above data means that December is slow as molasses, with fewer showings for sellers and fewer choices for buyers.  Serious buyers (or bargain hunters) remain in the market, and clean, well-riced properties can manage to get sold before the end of the year.

We’ve seen a few unusual Decembers in the past five years, with 2020 having a very mild drop in sales of just 11% instead of the typical 35%.  That can be attributed to the COVID era and 2020 was very unusual in many ways when it came to real estate.  We also saw a milder than normal drop in sales in 2023, where they only went down about 25% compared to November.  Given we typically see a 30% to 42% drop on a month over month basis, that does qualify as unusual!

The Bottom Line

If you want to sound smart at your next cocktail party, here’s the quick and easy version of what happens in Toronto’s real estate market in the last quarter of the year.

October is the last “active” month, with sales up, but listings down.  Prices are pretty steady with perhaps a slight bump, but the market is starting to feel slower.  November sees a real step down in both sales and listings and the average price starts to drop – but not markedly so.  December is thin but efficient, with very low levels of new listings and sales that more or less match that number of new options, and the average price dips considerably.

If you’re a seller, October is your best late-year window. By November to December, you’ll need to price to the market and focus on presenting your best.  Serious buyers are still looking, as are bargain hunters, but they have fewer choices and are ready to pounce on any perceived desperation.

On the buying side, you can expect fewer options in November to December, but what’s left is likely willing to negotiate more on the price, as you’ll be facing less competition from other buyers.

The New Year Feels Like the Old Year

All of the historic data for the final quarters – as well as our current stats – says that we’ll start 2026 pretty slowly.  Here’s what we’re predicting!

  • Average price: $1M (the range is $964,900–$1,062,500)
  • Active listings: 6,200 (the range 5,200–6,650)
  • Sales: 1,260 (the range is 1,100–1,430)
  • New listings: 2,145 (the range is 1,850–2,585)

The above is based on 2025 ending in a more or less typical fashion to what we’ve seen in the past 15 years.  If things go sideways in the economy, expect to see more on the low end of the range, and if we see more stability and optimism, then we’ll likely hit the higher end of the range.

The above is for Toronto, but if you’re curious about what is happening in other parts of the GTA, then reach out to us and we’re happy to do a similar review for the final quarter of the year.  If you’re just after market data and what’s coming next, check out our market analysis section for your area!