When people talk about a real estate spring market, they’re referring to a perceived period of higher sales and greater activity in the market after the slower winter period.
In a general sense, we would agree that spring markets still take place each year, but only in the sense that the dead of winter is always the slowest time of year for real estate sales and any other time of year is busier in comparison.
Many sellers and buyers plan their next move around a perceived busy period, either the spring market or the fall market. While such markets may have existed in the past, we’ve seen increasingly untethered markets over the last number of years. We’ve previously written about fall markets but given that many of our buyer and seller clients are anxiously asking us about the spring market in 2026, we thought it was time to look at the data to see if we’ll actually see a spring market this year.
For our analysis we looked at the Toronto data going back 15 years to 2010. We focused on what took place in February, March, April and May so that we could talk specifically about what “normally” happens and what we’re predicting will take place this year. Let’s get into it.
February – So it begins!
When we look at the data, across all 15 years (2011–2025), February is higher than January for:
- Sales: 15/15 years up
- New listings: 15/15 years up
- Average price: 15/15 years up
We typically see around 2,500 sales in February, compared to about 1,700 sales in the city in January. That’s about 40% higher than January, so absolutely a strong month over month increase in sales. New listings typically go up about 21% in February, with median numbers of new listings being around 4,600. Prices also start to rise in February, typically going up about 12% from the January average price.
While February is consistently a better month for sales, new listings and average prices, that’s because January is almost always the lowest month of the year for sales and new listings, and sometimes the lowest price of the year. Is February the start of the spring market then? Hold your horses.
March – More sales, more new listings, lower average price?
When we look at the last 15 years, March has consistently been busier than February in terms of number of sales and new listings, but not in higher average price.
- Sales: 15/15 years up
- New listings: 15/15 years up
- Average price: 6/15 years up
March sees about a 37% increase in sales compared to February, and about a 30% bump in number of new listings, so March is definitely more active than February.
On the average price side of things, March typically sees a drop of about 1% in average price compared to February. Remember that prices from January to February typically increase by about 12%, which is a significant month over month change. You could view the slight price drop that occurs in March as a bit of a market pause, as it adjusts to the new average price. If that logic makes sense to us, then it is largely a function of how much of a price bump we saw in the February of a given year. All told, March saw higher prices than February in six of the last 15 years, so about a one in three chance you’ll see that happen in any given year. If this doesn’t sound exactly like a description of a hot spring market, let’s see what April brings.
April – Prices go up (likely), new listings go up (probably) and sales go up (maybe)
The stats for April show a somewhat variable but mostly positive picture when it comes to what typically takes place in the fourth month of the year.
- Sales: 10/15 years up
- New listings: 12/15 years up
- Average price: 13/15 years up
Starting with average price, April has seen a higher average price than March in 13 of the last 15 years, typically to the tune of about 5% higher. It is possible that we don’t see an April increase compared to March, but most of the time, prices do go up in April.
On the new listings side of things, we have more new listings in Toronto in April than March in 12 of the last 15 years. That means if you’re looking to buy, you can probably count on seeing about 10% more options for you in April, compared to what came on the market in March.
For our level of sales, April sees about a 10% increase in sales numbers, but that has only happened 10 out of the last 15 years. Given more sales happen about two-thirds of the time, you can probably count on it happening, but don’t bet the farm on it.
Put it all together and April is the month that most fits the description of a spring market. Most of the time it’s busier and sees higher average prices than previous months, which is what most people associate with the spring market. Not all hope is lost if you’re not doing a deal by April though, as May isn’t typically too different.
May – It’s still spring, right?
The story for May continues to be somewhat inconsistent compared to previous months.
- Sales: 12/15 years up
- New listings: 14/15 years up
- Average price: 11/15 years up
Sales have continued to rise in 12 out of the last 15 months and the average price has gone up in May (compared to April) in 11 out of the last 15 months. Interestingly enough, lots of sellers are latecomers to the spring market, with the number of new listings going up in 14 out of the past 15 years.
In terms of percentages, when May is up compared to April, it isn’t by a lot. The median increase in average price is less than 2% and the number of sales is up by about 7%. While the number of new listings is almost up compared to April, it only goes up by about 11%, which isn’t a strong increase compared to the start of the year with February and March jumps in new listing levels.
While April is most commonly the best month of the spring in terms of collective increases in sales, new listings and average price, May isn’t far behind and you might consider the spring market to typically take place in April and May, rather than in just one month.
What’s it all mean?
We did promise an answer to whether we’d see a spring market this year, so here it is.
Yes, but only compared to our low and slow numbers in the last few months.
We ended 2025 with December showing the lowest average price of the year in Toronto at about $970,000. As such, any “typical” price appreciation in the spring of 2026 will be using a lower number as the starting point. Similarly, our slow market in terms of sales means that while we’ll likely see an increase in February and onward, we’re not hitting it out of the park by any means.
There’s a lot of “this happens sometimes” and numbers and percentages above, so let’s finish with some key-take aways from this review that we think will hold true for 2026.
- January is a bad month (on average) for sellers to sell. With the lowest average price (for at least the first half of the year), sellers who can wait until at least February will, on average, get significantly more for their home.
- If you’re buying, March is likely the best time in the Spring to do so. February seems to be with eager beavers fighting over new listings and pushing up prices, while March sees a surge in new listings and sales, with a corresponding slow down in price appreciation.
- April is when sellers seem to get the best average sale price, with about 16% higher average sale prices in April compared to January.
There are always variables that impact what takes place in any given year, but with 15 years of data reviewed, the above is a good starting point if you plan on buying or selling in 2026.
If you’re interested in us doing the above analysis of the data for your specific market, housing type or price point, then get in touch with us. While what’s happening in the market on average is useful to know, you’re not buying or selling the market – you’re buying or selling one specific property in one specific area. Let’s make sure you time that transaction right!
