You make money when you buy.

In both good and bad markets, there is some simple math that determines how well the seller did on the sale of the property.

If you sold it for more than what you bought it for, you did well. If you had to take less than what you paid for it, you didn’t. You can add in the transaction costs of buying and selling if you like, but at the end of the day, it boils down to how much you bought it for and your eventual sale price.

There is saying in real estate, which is that you make money when you buy, not when you sell. The meaning behind it is as simple as the math above. If you over pay for a property relative to the sale price of it over the course of your ownership, then you can’t make money.

The corollary to this adage is that buying at the height of a market is bad, particularly if you end up needing to sell during the low point of another market. If that sounds as simplistic as what we’re describing above, you’re absolutely right. There is some good news however, which is that it is easy to know if you’re at the current height or the current bottom of a market.

The real estate industry produces a staggering amount of statistics and while some are nuanced, the way to tell where a market is at any given point is simply the level of sales and the current average price. If the current price is the highest in a number of years (or ever!) then you’re buying at the current height of the market. Even in markets where prices rise consistently over the course of a year, there are variations each month in average price and it never goes up or down every month for extended periods.

Consider Toronto, where in the last 15 years, the average price has risen in 47% of the months and dropped in 53% of the months. If you choose to buy after four or five months of rising prices, then you’ll need to make sure that you sell when prices have also been rising for a while.

The media has been full of stories in the past year about people losing tremendous amounts of money when they sell a property. This is a very clear case of people who bought at the height of one market and are selling at a low point of another market.

It does not, however, mean that everyone will lose money on the sale of their property. We recently helped a client sell a condo and while she was quite apprehensive about the price we could get her for it, she still made close to $200,000 profit on the sale after expenses. She had owned it for a length of time and while condo prices have certainly dropped in the past couple of years, they are still not down to what you would have paid for one back in 2016.

We did the analysis on Toronto and the six other regions that TRREB operates within in order to say when your best and worst time to have bought was in the last 16 years. Let’s get to it!

Toronto

In January, 2026, Toronto’s average sale price was $954,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Toronto was in April, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,249,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the city in the past 16 years, which took place in August, 2010, when a property cost about $417,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 67th highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $295,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in April, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 127th lowest average price in Toronto in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $537,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in August, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Toronto in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $955,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in April, 2022, when properties in the city cost about $1,249,000. That’s approximately $294,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Toronto compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2021, when the average price was $877,000. Our current average price puts us about $78,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Toronto if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $955,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,230,000 → $275,000 above current prices
Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,146,000 → $191,000 above current prices
Spring 2025 (Mar–May 2025): Avg $1,131,000 → $177,000 above current prices
Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,126,000 → $171,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,116,000 → $161,000 above current prices

This is for the market as a whole and if you did buy in one of the above time periods, don’t despair! The specifics for your type of home, neighbourhood and price point can differ greatly than the average. In general, though, sellers who bought at those times may find staying put is the best option for now.

Peel

In January, 2026, Peel’s average sale price was $911,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Peel was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,349,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2011, when a property cost about $370,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $438,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Peel in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $541,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2011.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Peel in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $911,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,349,000. That’s approximately $438,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Peel compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $792,000. Our current average price puts us about $119,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Peel if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $911,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,226,000 → $315,000 above current prices
Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,225,000 → $314,000 above current prices
Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,105,000 → $194,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,096,000 → $185,000 above current prices
Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,090,000 → $178,000 above current prices

York

In January, 2026, York’s average sale price was $1,094,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in York was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,556,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $465,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 65th highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $462,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 129th lowest average price in York in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $628,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in York in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,094,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,557,000. That’s approximately $463,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in York compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $918,000. Our current average price puts us about $176,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in York if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,094,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,500,000 → $406,000 above current prices
Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,417,000 → $323,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,381,000 → $287,000 above current prices
Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,358,000 → $264,000 above current prices
Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $1,350,000 → $256,000 above current prices

Halton

In January, 2026, Halton’s average sale price was $1,137,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Halton was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,536,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in July, 2010, when a property cost about $443,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 57th highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $399,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 137th lowest average price in Halton in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $694,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in July, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Halton in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $1,137,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,536,000. That’s approximately $399,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Halton compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $856,000. Our current average price puts us about $281,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Halton if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $1,137,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,445,000 → $308,000 above current prices
Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,405,000 → $267,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,312,000 → $175,000 above current prices
Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $1,269,000 → $131,000 above current prices
Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $1,268,000 → $130,000 above current prices

Durham

In January, 2026, Durham’s average sale price was $821,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Durham was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,231,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in February, 2010, when a property cost about $289,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 61st highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $409,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 133rd lowest average price in Durham in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $533,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in February, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Durham in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $822,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,231,000. That’s approximately $409,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Durham compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $620,000. Our current average price puts us about $202,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Durham if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $822,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,141,000 → $319,000 above current prices
Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,071,000 → $249,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $987,000 → $165,000 above current prices
Summer 2023 (Jun–Aug 2023): Avg $962,000 → $140,000 above current prices
Spring 2023 (Mar–May 2023): Avg $959,000 → $137,000 above current prices

Dufferin

In January, 2026, Dufferin’s average sale price was $944,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Dufferin was in January, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,228,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in January, 2010, when a property cost about $276,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 35th highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $284,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in January, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 159th lowest average price in Dufferin in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $668,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in January, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Dufferin in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $945,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in January, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,229,000. That’s approximately $284,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Dufferin compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at April, 2020, when the average price was $595,000. Our current average price puts us about $350,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Dufferin if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $945,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $1,157,000 → $212,000 above current prices
Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $1,067,000 → $122,000 above current prices
Fall 2021 (Sep–Nov 2021): Avg $1,043,000 → $98,000 above current prices
Fall 2023 (Sep–Nov 2023): Avg $984,000 → $39,000 above current prices
Summer 2022 (Jun–Aug 2022): Avg $969,000 → $24,000 above current prices

Simcoe

In January, 2026, Simcoe’s average sale price was $736,000. The highest average sale price in the last 16 years in Simcoe was in February, 2022 when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,033,000. Compare that with the lowest average sale price in the region in the past 16 years, which took place in October, 2010, when a property cost about $257,000.

It’s natural for real estate prices to go up over years and decades, but let’s review where our current average sale prices put us. In January, 2026, our average sale price was the 60th highest price out of the last 193 months. We’re about $297,000 below our highest ever price, which happened in February, 2022. Put another way, January, 2026 was the 134th lowest average price in Simcoe in the last 16 years, which means we’re about $479,000 above our lowest price, which happened back in October, 2010.

Prices have fluctuated considerably in Simcoe in the last number of years, so let’s look at our highs and lows since COVID. In our most recent month (January, 2026) the average price was about $736,000. Compare that against the highest average price after 2020, which was in February, 2022, when properties in the region cost about $1,034,000. That’s approximately $298,000 above our current average price. If you want to know how we’re doing in Simcoe compared to the most recent lowest price, we need to look at January, 2020, when the average price was $532,000. Our current average price puts us about $204,000 above that level.

So, when were the worst times to buy in Simcoe if you were thinking about selling now?

With our current average price (January 2026) of approximately $736,000, purchases made in the five below times are facing a challenge in making any money on a sale right now.

Winter 2025 (Dec 2024–Feb 2025): Avg $817,000 → $81,000 above current prices
Spring 2024 (Mar–May 2024): Avg $839,000 → $103,000 above current prices
Summer 2024 (Jun–Aug 2024): Avg $821,000 → $85,000 above current prices
Spring 2022 (Mar–May 2022): Avg $991,000 → $255,000 above current prices
Winter 2022 (Dec 2021–Feb 2022): Avg $975,000 → $239,000 above current prices

While media stories paint all parts of Toronto and the GTA with the same brush, the truth is that each of these real estate markets has different patterns. We work with clients in all of them and our analytical approach is part of what allows us to offer guidance on the timing to both buy and sell.

If you are thinking about buying this year, there is lots of evidence that you are buying at a considerable low point in the current market. If you’re planning on selling, then when you bought and what is happening in your neighbourhood or building is crucial to your plans. Get in touch with us to help figure out the best path forward!