In any profession, there are some pieces of common wisdom that get trotted out in answer to certain questions. In the real estate industry, one of the most common questions is “When is the best time to buy or sell real estate?” and the answer is actually very nuanced.
First and foremost, the best time to buy real estate is likely the worst time to sell real estate. If that question really means “When can I buy the best property for the least amount of money?”, you can see how that question’s answer would be very different to the answer to “When can I sell property for the most amount of money?”.
If we decided to parse the question that way and answer both questions, it only leads to more revisions to what is actually being asked. For both buying and selling, the “best time” varies depending on a number of factors. Whether it is type of property, price point, geography, or attributes of properties, an accurate answer needs to focus on the specifics of those real estate markets.
For example, selling a $2M home with a gorgeous backyard oasis and a large pool is “best” done in late Spring or early Summer, in an economy where buyers in that price point are looking to move up to a new level of luxury. Contrast that to a $500K condo located close to a university, where the “best” time is likely mid-to-late summer when students (or more accurately students’ parents) or investors are on the hunt for properties that will make good income properties in the years to come.
Given the challenges with determining the “best” real estate market, we thought we’d focus on a more defined question, namely when is the slowest time of year for real estate sales? We get that question a lot, often based on the assumption that low levels of sales means good buying opportunities and poor selling timing. While that is also very dependent on the type of property, prices, location and the ever present levers of supply and demand, we can definitely answer when sales are lowest – and highest.
With 2025 now a couple of days old, we thought we’d look at the data for the past five years to answer the question for you. We don’t have the full 2024 data as of yet, but we can make some educated guesses as to how the year ended. Let’s get to the charts!
Boy, things slowed down in the last couple of years.
The first chart we pulled together shows the level of sales per year we’ve seen in 2024 (January to November to be precise) and for the last five years.
The below is for all real estate sales taking place with the GTA through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board’s MLS system. As such, this includes both Freehold as well as Condo sales in Toronto, Peel, York, Durham, Halton, Simcoe and Dufferin.
You’ll note that 2024 had just over 64,000 sales as of the end of November, and with just one month left, it is probably likely that the year just squeaked over 2023 in terms of level of sales. While December is never a busy month, 2023 had just under 66,000 sales, and we’re betting that we’ll see more than 2,000 sales in the GTA in December. While 2024 may be slighter higher sales than 2023, that doesn’t mean much, as 2023 was the lowest level of sales in the prior five years.
You’ll note that from 2019 through to 2021, we had a huge run up in sales. Despite a dip during the start of COVID in 202, the year ended up mean very busy by historical standards, and then that was blown out of the water by 2021, with over 121,000 sales across the GTA. Things started to go downhill in 2022 and 2023 and (likely) 2024 saw about half of the 2021 level of sales.
I’m here for the data. Spill!
While the overall level of sales last year and the prior five years is interesting, we promised an answer to the slowest month of the year. We threw in the highest month of the year as well for the same time period, and the answers are not fully consistent.
Remember, the chart below is for all of the GTA, including both Freehold and Condo sales, but the stats for 2024 don’t include December’s numbers yet.
With the exception of 2020’s COVID slowdown, when April was the slowest month of the year, the lowest level of sales across the GTA has taken place in either January or December for the past six years. While the data for 2024 currently has January as the slowest month, with just over 4,000 sales, we’re actually predicting that December will take the bottom spot for 2024.
Regardless, you can see that the end of the year and start of the year are not busy times for real estate generally. Sales tend to be in the 3,000 level of transactions, with 2021 (the record high year for real estate transactions in the GTA) coming in at over 6,000 sales in December, the slowest month of the year.
Contrast that with the busiest month of the year, which typically (but not always) happens in the Spring. Both 2022 and 2021 saw the highest level of sales in March, but 2023 and 2019 hit their annual busiest month height in May. During the start of COVID in 2020, we had an extremely slow Spring and Summer, but the Fall came back in high numbers, and September was the busiest month in 2020.
While we don’t have the December data yet for 2024, we are certain that April 2024 will win for busiest month of last year. As we mention, we think that December 2024 may end up being the slowest month of the year, but there is no way it will beat April’s 7,000 sales.
We love diving into the stats and turning numbers into insights. If you are thinking about buying or selling, don’t rely on what’s happening on average, talk to us about what is happening in your market, for the type of home you’re curious about!
