If you read the newspaper headlines and follow real estate news on your feed, you may have the impression that now is a terrible time to own a condo. That perception is driven by the fact that many investors as well as would-be investors have decided to realize their profits (or cut their losses) and put their condo up for sale.
It’s hard to argue against the idea that is a bad time to sell a condo, as over supply – particularly of the one bedroom or studio apartment type – has put downward pressure on condo prices for most of the last couple of years.
While we’d agree it is a challenging time to sell condo apartments, that doesn’t necessarily mean that it is a bad time to own a condo unit. Condo apartments make up 65% of the housing stock in Toronto, and given Toronto has a population of around 3.2 million people, there over two million people who own condos in the city. With our population density and price of real estate, condo units have been (and remain) the lowest priced way to get onto the property ladder in Toronto. Yes, condo prices have dropped in the past couple of years, but that is also true for the market as a whole.
In May, 2024, we saw the average price for a condo unit in Toronto hit its two year high, coming in at about $776,000. Over the course of a bit more than a year, we saw it drop down to a two year low of $673,000. As of the start of December 2025, our average price for a condo is now $698,000. As of right now, we’re up $25,000 from our two year low, and down $77,000 from our two year high.
For the market as a whole, the highest average sale price in the past two years in Toronto was also in May 2024, when we hit an average sale price of approximately $1,199,000. Compare that against January 2024, where Toronto saw our lowest average sale price of about $952,000. That means that in the past couple of years we’ve seen prices for the market as a whole fluctuate by about $247,000.
Our current average price of $1,060,000 means that we’re up $108,000 from our two year low, and down $139,000 from our two year high.
The numbers show that owning a condo right now is better than it has been in the worst of our recent market shifts (to the tune of about $25K), so we’d say condo owners are doing OK.
If it is a bad time to sell a condo, an OK time to own a condo, what sort of timing is it for buying one? With a couple of caveats, we think right now (December 2025) is a great time to buy a condo. Here’s our reasoning.
Desperate times call for…taking what you can get.
While seasonal cycles may be less reliable in our real estate market in the past number of years, we still encounter a winter slow down every year. In 2023, 2024 and 2025, October was the last hurrah in terms of number of sales for the remainder of the year. We always see fewer sales, lower prices and less new listings as we head towards the end of the year.
Sellers who have been trying to get rid of a condo unit for weeks or months view the upcoming winter months with dread. They know that showings will slow to a trickle and carrying costs will continue to mount. If it is an investment property that has been vacant for more than six months this year, then they are also likely facing a 3% vacancy tax from the City of Toronto.
Put bluntly, the end of the year (and the first month of a new year) are excellent opportunities for buyers. If you can close quickly, your agent can put lots of pressure on a seller to have them accept a much lower offer than they would have even considered a few months ago.
Renting isn’t looking so hot right now.
When getting a good sale price is hard to do, condo owners who aren’t in need of the capital in the property can choose to rent it out. This has traditionally been the lifeline for those condo owners who aren’t able to get the price they want or need in order to move forward with a sale.
The challenge with that approach right now is two-fold. First, winter is not just a slow time to sell properties – it is also a difficult time to rent a place. Whether it is the holidays, the logistical challenges of physically moving in cold, snowy weather or the short days, winter is the hardest season to rent a property.
The second challenge has to do with the state of our condo rental market, which has dropped noticeably for condo landlords. Asking rents in Toronto are down 2.9% year-over-year to an average of $2,592 and the City of Toronto’s secondary condo rents fell 3.8% year-over-year in Q3 2025 (to about $2,714 for a 675-sf unit). As stories of the condo market troubles proliferated, a number of potential sellers of condo units decided to keep them and rent them out. As a result, competition has intensified as supply has grown and tenants have more choice.
On the new purpose-built rental side of the equation, professional rental companies have begun offering incentives such as a free month rent or parking to attract tenants. This has further impacted the resale rental condo market, which is typically older than the purpose-built rentals.
If we combine all of the above, it means that the rental option is not that desirable for a number of condo sellers. This is in addition to the fact that some condo owners urgently need the capital in the property due to financial issues and cannot afford to keep the unit even if they can rent it out.
The future’s so bright, I’ve got to wear shades.
We have a bad habit in Toronto where we assume that whatever is happening to real estate will continue to happen forever. If prices are going up, then they will always go up. If properties aren’t appreciating, then they will be worth the same in five years as right now. Given the price drops we’ve seen over the past couple of years, most of Toronto seems to be falling into the “whatever it’s worth now, it will be worth less later” trap.
The reality is that real estate markets fluctuate and that the trend for prices move right along with it.
Take a look at the below chart which shows the average price for a property in Toronto over the past two years. This includes both freehold as well as condo units, but the same fluctuations occur in the condo segment. Prices go up and down on a month to month basis and while the average always creeps higher over time, we have seen periods of two to four years of lack of growth before prices increase.
While prices may fluctuate, when the perception is that prices are going to go down, buyers hold off on making a purchase. When that perception continues and economic issues can further uncertainty, we end up with a situation where the number of buyers is greatly exceeded by the number of sellers. This has arguably been felt across the entire Toronto real estate market, but it has most strongly impacted the condo segment.
As a result of this perception, we started seeing a slow down in 2022 of the sales of new condo projects. They began to decline in mid-2022 and by the following year, that slow down had worsened. Urbanation reports that 2023 condo construction starts fell 45% in 2023 compared to 2022, and the second half of 2023 was down 72% year-over-year, meaning far fewer projects actually broke ground. By 2024, the slowdown became severe and Urbanation reported that condo apartment construction starts dropped 50% to a 25-year low. CMHC says 2024 condo-unit cancellations in Toronto were more than five times the number in a typical year (such as 2022) and Urbanation’s latest survey counts 32 condo projects cancelled since the start of 2024 plus 20 more that are on hold or in receivership.
Things have not improved in 2025, and the new-build condo market has posted multi-decade lows, with the lowest sales since 1995, with only 2,176 units sold year-to-date, which is a 28-year low. Cancellations set a new record this year, with 18 projects (about 4,040 units) having been cancelled completely.
It takes three to four years for a condo project to go from ground-breaking to occupancy, which means that our 2023 slow down will result in 2026/2027 seeing very few new condo projects hitting the market. Over the course of the next couple of years, we’re predicting that the current state of the condo market will reverse, with fewer condo units available for sale as the lack of new inventory means older resale inventory is basically the only option for condo buyers.
If we’re conservative, we would say that 2027 or 2028 is when resale condo prices will begin rising. As buyer sentiment shifts based on the scarcity of available units, new construction projects will begin selling out again, which means by 2030 or later, new condo projects will be coming onto the market and prices will steady out.
In the very short-term (December 2025, January and February 2026), there are great opportunities to buy a resale condo from a seller who has experienced few showings and little interest. Throughout the course of 2026, further opportunities will become available, driven by economic news and the strength (or weakness) of our economy. In 2027, the lack of new condo projects coming on the market will start to shift buyer sentiment and bargains will disappear.
If you’re thinking about buying a condo and have a three to five year timeframe of holding it, then we’d love to help you get a great bargain – or two! If that sounds good, please reach out to us so we can show you specific opportunities we’re seeing out there!
